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2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Kent Tong

Nominations for the 92nd Academy Awards are finally going to be announced tomorrow morning! 2019 was a strong year for films, but the awards race has been disappointing in its lack of recognition for women and people of color. There’s a strong chance this year’s Oscars will include an all-male directors category and all-white acting nominees. This would be very strange, considering The Academy has been making an effort to up their female and POC count ever since the back-to-back #OscarsSoWhite controversy in 2015 and 2016. There are always going to be snubs because not every deserving film/studio has the money and power to campaign. But I’m hoping there will be some good surprises tomorrow morning, with a more diverse slate of nominees than we’re expecting.

Note: my predictions are ordered based on likelihood of being nominated. Dark horse and wish lists are organized in alphabetical order.

Another note: I’m only offering predictions for the Big Six categories (Picture, Director, Acting (4)), screenplay (2), and cinematography because these are the categories I have more thoughts on. There are 24 total categories at The Oscars.

Best Picture

The Academy nominates anywhere from five to ten films for Best Picture, based on a preferential balloting system. Any film that receives at least 5% of top choices becomes a nominee. Ever since this rule has been in place there have always been eight or nine nominees. This is likely to be the case again this year, but I’m hoping we’ll finally get ten nominees because the slate this year is so damn good.

The Producers Guild of America (PGAs) is a very strong indicator for Best Picture nominees at The Oscars. Over the last ten years, at least seven of the PGA nominees have gone on to be nominated at The Oscars. This year, the PGAs nominated:

  1. 1917

  2. Ford v Ferrari

  3. The Irishman

  4. Jojo Rabbit

  5. Joker

  6. Knives Out

  7. Little Women

  8. Marriage Story

  9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

  10. Parasite

Though it’s likely only seven to nine of these nominees will be recognized at The Oscars, I feel like there’s a strong chance all ten of these will be nominated. It’s such a stacked list, and all of these films have been getting attention in the race all year. I love the attention ‘Parasite’ has been receiving. The film will most likely be nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay. No South Korean film has ever been nominated at The Oscars, so it’s great news to know ‘Parasite’ has a strong chance of breaking that trend.

I think of the ten, ‘Jojo Rabbit’, ‘Joker’, and ‘Little Women’ are more at risk of not being nominated. ‘Jojo Rabbit’ has been criticized for its subject matter, despite receiving mostly positive reviews, ‘Joker’ is not only a comic-book movie (last year’s ‘Black Panther’ is the only comic-book film to be nominated for Best Picture) but also a controversial one for its potentially dangerous portrayal of a serial killer, and ‘Little Women’ debuted at the end of the year to little awards discussion despite its universal critical praise.

I predict The Oscars will match up with the PGAs, which will be unfortunate because it’s so male and white-dominated. In a year where women, Black, and other minority filmmakers have delivered critical darlings, it’s a shame none of them have gotten the attention as the ones in discussion.

My Prediction (in order of most likely to least likely):

  1. The Irishman (Netflix)

  2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)

  3. 1917 (Universal)

  4. Parasite (Neon)

  5. Marriage Story (Netflix)

  6. Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)

  7. Knives Out (Lionsgate)

  8. Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)

  9. Joker (Warner Bros.)

  10. Little Women (Sony)

Dark Horse (in alphabetical order):

  1. Bombshell (Lionsgate)

  2. Dolemite is My Name (Netflix)

  3. The Farewell (A24)

  4. The Two Popes (Netflix)

  5. Uncut Gems (A24)

And here’s my Best Picture wish list if I had things my way:

  1. 1917

  2. Booksmart

  3. The Farewell

  4. Little Women

  5. Hustlers

  6. Knives Out

  7. Parasite

  8. Uncut Gems

  9. Us

Best Director

UGHHHHHH. I just know I’m going to be disappointed by these nominees because it’s very likely Todd Phillips and Quentin Tarantino will be nominated. While I liked ‘Joker’, are you really going above and beyond as a director if the whole film takes elements from two classic films (‘Taxi Driver’ and ‘The King of Comedy’)? And ‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’ is not a bad film, but it’s definitely Tarantino’s worst. This nominees will surely be disappointing due to the lack of recognition given to female directors in 2019, despite the fact that 2019 had the most films directed by women thus far. The lack of films from people of color in the awards discussion is another bad look for the film industry as a whole.

The Directors Guild of America (DGAs) is a strong indicator of who will be nominated for The Oscars, though it doesn’t always line up exactly. Looking at the past ten years, the DGA and Oscars usually share four of the same nominees, leaving the fifth spot as a wild card. But last year, only three DGA nominees were nominated at The Oscars.

The DGAs nominated Bong Joon-ho, Sam Mendes, Martin Scorsese, Quentin Tarantino, and Taika Waititi. Assuming the most popular contenders (Bong, Mendes, Scorsese, Tarantino) are nominated at The Oscars, I believe they’ll surprise us with a different director for the fifth slot, someone not nominated at the DGAs. Todd Phillips and Noah Baumbach are likely contenders for the fifth spot.

My Prediction:

  1. Martin Scorsese (‘The Irishman’)

  2. Sam Mendes (‘1917’)

  3. Bong Joon-ho (‘Parasite’)

  4. Quentin Tarantino (‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’)

  5. Noah Baumbach (‘Marriage Story’)

Dark Horse:

  1. Pedro Almodovar (‘Pain and Glory’)

  2. Greta Gerwig (‘Little Women’)

  3. Todd Phillips (‘Joker’)

Wish List (In alphabetical order. I know, it’s more than five):

  1. Bong Joon-ho (‘Parasite’)

  2. Greta Gerwig (‘Little Women’)

  3. Rian Johnson (‘Knives Out’)

  4. Jordan Peele (‘Us’)

  5. The Safdie Brothers (‘Uncut Gems’)

  6. Lorene Scafaria (‘Hustlers’)

  7. Lulu Wang (‘The Farewell’)

  8. Olivia Wilde (‘Booksmart’)

Best Actor

The Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAGs) is a good indicator of the eventual Oscar nominees. Over the past ten years, the SAGs has matched The Oscars exactly just one time (in 2016), but shared the same four nominees a whopping seven times. That’s a pretty good track record.

This year, the SAGs nominated: Leonardo DiCaprio, Adam Driver, Taron Egerton, Joaquin Phoenix, and Christian Bale. Out of the five, Egerton was the surprise here because, despite ‘Rocketman’ being a good film, it hasn’t been getting the type of awards attention others have, so it’s a welcome surprise Egerton was recognized here. The surprising snub is Robert De Niro. I’m not sure what it is, but everyone involved in ‘The Irishman’ (Martin Scorsese, Joe Pesci, Al Pacino) has been in the awards discussion except for De Niro, the lead of the damn film.

Personally, I’d say the three who will for sure be nominated are DiCaprio, Driver, and Phoenix. The award is Phoenix’s to lose. I can only hope Adam Sandler gets his first acting nomination here for his mesmerizing and unforgettable performance in the anxiety-inducing ‘Uncut Gems’ - for all of our’s sake.

My Prediction:

  1. Joaquin Phoenix (‘Joker’)

  2. Leonardo DiCaprio (‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’)

  3. Adam Driver (‘Marriage Story’)

  4. Christian Bale (‘Ford v Ferrari’)

  5. Antonio Banderas (‘Pain and Glory’)

Dark Horse:

  1. Robert De Niro (‘The Irishman’)

  2. Taron Egerton (‘Rocketman’)

  3. Eddie Murphy (‘Dolemite is My Name’)

  4. Jonathan Pryce (‘The Two Popes’)

  5. Adam Sandler (‘Uncut Gems’)

Wish List:

  1. Taron Egerton (‘Rocketman’)

  2. Michael B. Jordan (‘Just Mercy’)

  3. Viveik Kalra (‘Blinded by the Light’)

  4. George MacKay (‘1917’)

  5. Joaquin Phoenix (‘Joker’)

  6. Adam Sandler (‘Uncut Gems’)

Best Actress

Though not as strong of an indicator as Best Actor, the SAGs and Oscars have matched up three or four out of five nominees every year for the past decade. The SAGs nominated Cynthia Erivo, Scarlett Johansson, Charlize Theron, Renee Zellweger, and Lupita Nyong’o (hurrah!). The biggest surprise here is Nyong’o for starring in a dual role in Jordan Peele’s ‘Us’. Though it’s a fantastic follow up to his debut ‘Get Out’, it hasn’t gotten the same attention. I hope The Academy doesn’t forget about Nyong’o.

This award is Zellweger’s to lose, so she’ll surely be nominated. Johansson and Theron are also lock-ins. Unfortunately, that leaves only two spots open for actors of color, and probably only one spot will go to someone not white. It’s a shame Alfre Woodard isn’t even in any major award discussion despite having an outstanding performance in ‘Clemency’. Ana de Armas had a surprising breakout role in ‘Knives Out’, standing out among a pack of A-list stars. There are so many other performances I saw in 2019 that are surely better than Scarlett Johansson in ‘Marriage Story’ and Charlize Theron in ‘Bombshell’.

Prediction:

  1. Renee Zellweger (‘Judy’)

  2. Scarlett Johansson (‘Marriage Story’)

  3. Charlize Theron (‘Bombshell’)

  4. Saoirse Ronan (‘Little Women’)

  5. Cynthia Erivo (‘Harriet’)

Dark Horse:

  1. Awkwafina (‘The Farewell’)

  2. Lupita Nyong’o (‘Us’)

Wish List:

  1. Awkwafina (‘The Farewell’)

  2. Ana de Armas (‘Knives Out’)

  3. Jillian Bell (‘Brittany Runs a Marathon’)

  4. Kaitlyn Dever (‘Booksmart’)

  5. Beanie Feldstein (‘Booksmart’)

  6. Lupita Nyong’o (‘Us’)

  7. Saoirse Ronan (‘Little Women’)

  8. Alfre Woodard (‘Clemency’)

  9. Constance Wu (‘Hustlers’)

Supporting Actor

The SAGs and Oscars have matched four nominees each time for the last three years, so there’s a strong change it’ll be another four matches. The SAGs nominated Tom Hanks, Al Pacino, Joe Pesci, Brad Pitt, and Jamie Foxx this year.

Pacino, Pesci, and Pitt are definitely going to be nominated. Though Hanks is a reliable star in many critically-acclaimed features, he surprisingly rarely gets nominated at The Oscars. The last time he was recognized was in 2001 for ‘Cast Away’. So it’s likely he won’t be nominated again this year - or maybe this year will break the trend!

In terms of overshadowed performances, I believe Aldis Hodge had the best supporting performance out of the films I’ve seen all year. His role as a convicted murdered on death role in ‘Clemency’ is heartbreaking. Had the film gotten any attention at all he surely would’ve been in the awards race. The entire cast of ‘Parasite’ should be nominated but, curiously, despite the film being nominated for many Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay awards, the cast has been left out of the discussion. I think this is due to film being in non-English, which is very unfortunate.

Prediction:

  1. Brad Pitt (‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’)

  2. Al Pacino (‘The Irishman’)

  3. Joe Pesci (‘The Irishman’)

  4. Tom Hanks (‘A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood’)

  5. Willem Dafoe (‘The Lighthouse’)

Dark Horse:

  1. Jamie Foxx (‘Just Mercy’)

  2. Anthony Hopkins (‘The Two Popes’)

  3. Sam Rockwell (‘Richard Jewell’)

Wish List:

  1. Timothee Chalamet (‘Little Women’)

  2. Jamie Foxx (‘Just Mercy’)

  3. Aldis Hodge (‘Clemency’)

  4. Jonathan Majors (‘The Last Black Man in San Francisco’)

  5. Rob Morgan (‘Just Mercy’)

  6. Sam Rockwell (‘Richard Jewell’)

  7. Song Kang-ho (‘Parasite’)

Supporting Actress

The past two years the SAGs and Oscars only matched three nominees each time, so this race may be more open than others. The SAGs nominated Laura Dern, Scarlett Johansson, Margot Robbie, Jennifer Lopez, and Nicole Kidman. I believe Dern and Johansson are nearly lock-ins, while Robbie is likely, though I’m not sure for which role. She’s an actual supporting character in ‘Bombshell’ and only has a minor role in ‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’, but ‘Once’ is a bigger film in the awards race so I’m thinking she’ll be nominated for that. I’m hoping Lopez gets nominated for her first Oscar for her work in ‘Hustlers’, one of the best films of 2019. Florence Pugh is amazing in ‘Little Women’ turning a traditionally unlikable character into someone we root for, so I hope she’s nominated, though the film has been overlooked everywhere.

Prediction:

  1. Laura Dern (‘Marriage Story’)

  2. Scarlett Johansson (‘Jojo Rabbit’)

  3. Jennifer Lopez (‘Hustlers’)

  4. Florence Pugh (‘Little Women’)

  5. Margot Robbie (‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’)

Dark Horse:

  1. Kathy Bates (‘Richard Jewell’)

  2. Annette Bening (‘The Report’)

  3. Laura Dern (‘Little Women’)

  4. Nicole Kidman (‘Bombshell’)

  5. Margot Robbie (‘Bombshell’)

Wish List:

  1. Laura Dern (for either ‘Little Women’ or ‘Marriage Story’)

  2. Julia Fox (‘Uncut Gems’)

  3. Jennifer Lopez (‘Hustlers’)

  4. Lashana Lynch (‘Captain Marvel’)

  5. Park So-dam (‘Parasite’)

  6. Florence Pugh (‘Little Women’)

  7. Zhao Shuzhen (‘The Farewell’)

Best Original Screenplay

The Writers Guild Awards is a good indicator for the nominations here. The last five years there’s been a lot of crossover between the two awards, sharing all five nominees in 2014, four nominees in 2016 and 2017, and three nominees in 2015 and last year. This year the WGAs nominated: ‘1917’, ‘Booksmart’, ‘Knives Out’, ‘Marriage Story’, and ‘Parasite’.

The lock-ins are ‘1917’, ‘Marriage Story’, and ‘Parasite’. Tarantino is usually popular in this category, though his last film ‘The Hateful Eight’ was shockingly left out. But I think he has a strong chance here because The Academy loves films about the film industry.

Prediction:

  1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)

  2. Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)

  3. Parasite (Bong Joon-ho & Han Jin-won)

  4. 1917 (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns)

  5. Knives Out (Rian Johnson)

Dark Horse:

  1. Booksmart (Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Susanna Fogel & Katie Silberman)

  2. The Farewell (Lulu Wang)

  3. The Lighthouse (Robert Eggers & Max Eggers)

  4. Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodóvar)

Wish List:

  1. Booksmart (Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Susanna Fogel & Katie Silberman)

  2. The Farewell (Lulu Wang)

  3. Knives Out (Rian Johnson)

  4. Parasite (Bong Joon-ho & Han Jin-won)

  5. Uncut Gems (Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie & Benny Safdie)

  6. Us (Jordan Peele)

Best Adapted Screenplay

This year, the WGAs nominated: ‘A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood’, ‘Little Women’, ‘Joker’, ‘Jojo Rabbit’, and ‘The Irishman’. The last three years, the WGAs and Oscars shared three, five, and four nominees. I believe the five WGA nominees are the likeliest to be nominated at The Oscars. ‘The Two Popes’ might be a contender for a fifth spot.

Prediction

  1. The Irishman (Steve Zaillian)

  2. Little Women (Greta Gerwig)

  3. Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)

  4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster)

  5. Joker (Todd Phillips & Scott Silver)

Dark Horse:

  1. The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)

Wish List:

  1. Hustlers (Lorene Scafaria)

  2. The Irishman (Steve Zaillian)

  3. Little Women (Greta Gerwig)

Best Cinematography

The American Society of Cinematographers nominated ‘Ford v Ferrari’, ‘The Irishman’, ‘Joker’, ‘1917’, and ‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’. The ASCs has been a pretty strong indicator for Oscar nominees too, so I’m thinking at least four of these nominees will be Oscar nominees. The lock-ins are ‘The Irishman’, ‘Joker’, ‘1917’, and ‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’, which likely leaves ‘Ford v Ferrari’ duking it out for the fifth slot with potential nominees like ‘The Lighthouse’, ‘Parasite’, ‘Portrait of a Lady on Fire’, and ‘A Hidden Life’. I believe ‘1917’ is the one to beat because, not only is the legendary Roger Deakins behind the camera, but the one-shot effect of the entire film is incredible.

My Prediction:

  1. 1917 (Roger Deakins)

  2. The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)

  3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Robert Richardson)

  4. Joker (Lawrence Sher)

  5. Parasite (Hong Kyung-pyo)

Dark Horse:

  1. Ford v Ferrari (Phedon Papamichael)

  2. A Hidden Life (Jörg Widmer)

  3. The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)

  4. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (Claire Mathon)

Wish List:

  1. 1917 (Roger Deakins)

  2. Ad Astra (Hoyte van Hoytema)

  3. The Farewell (Anna Franquesa Solano)

  4. Knives Out (Steve Yedlin)

  5. The Last Black Man in San Francisco (Adam Newport-Berra)

  6. Little Women (Yorick Le Saux)

  7. Parasite (Hong Kyung-pyo)

  8. Queen & Slim (Tat Radcliffe)