Oscars 2020 Predictions: Who Will Win & Who Should Win
I can’t believe the Oscars is already here. I guess it makes sense thanks to the fact The Academy pushed the awards ceremony much earlier this year, up by three weeks! That means there was a smaller voting period, with less time other awards to influence the Academy members. Despite being such a strong year, the slate of nominees at the Oscars this year is disappointing. It’s yet another year featuring all-male directing nominees, a best picture slate featuring almost entirely white men, and 19 out of 20 acting nominees are white. This is all a surprise for an organization that’s been making effort to diversify its membership over the last four years after back-to-back #OscarsSoWhite controversies. But alas, these are the nominees we got this year and I’m still hoping for some exciting wins, mostly for Bong Joon-ho’s ‘Parasite’.
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
The last time I correctly guessed this category was five years ago when ‘Birdman’ won, so I don’t exactly have the best track record. Out of the nine nominees, there’s a case to be made that only four have a decent shot at taking the big prize: ‘1917’, ‘The Irishman’, ‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’, and ‘Parasite’. The first three are the types of films the Oscars typically honors. They’re war epics, stories about the film industry, and/or from master directors. And of these three, ‘1917’ has the strongest chance of winning.
Martin Scorsese is used to having his films be nominated for Best Picture (his previously nominated films include ‘The Departed’, ‘Hugo’, and ‘The Wolf of Wall Street’), and he won Best Picture once - for ‘The Departed’ back in 2007. While ‘The Irishman’ is a gangster epic that brings back memories of his previous works, the fact that it’s a Netflix film works against it. No film from a streaming service has ever won the big prize, not even ‘Roma’ - the heavy favorite in last year’s race. There are still many in the Academy’s voting body who still view streaming services negatively.
Quentin Tarantino is another Oscar favorite with many Best Picture-nominated films, including ‘Pulp Fiction’, ‘Inglourious Basterds’, and ‘Django Unchained’, but he’s never been table to take the top prize. What works in favor of his latest film ‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’ is that the Oscars loves to honor films about the industry, like ‘The Artist’, ‘Argo’, and (briefly) ‘La La Land.’ Why I don’t see ‘Once Upon a Time’ winning is because, in my personal opinion, it’s easily Tarantino’s worst film. I must be an outlier because everyone seems to love the film, and it has a staggering 10 nominations.
Which leaves me with ‘1917’ and ‘Parasite’, the two frontrunners for Best Picture, with either win representing a different message from The Academy. A ‘1917’ win wouldn’t be bad (it’s a genuinely good film), just anticlimactic; it’s the type of film we’re used to seeing honored at the Oscars. A ‘Parasite’ win would be exciting, as it’s the first South Korean film to be nominated at the Oscars ever, not just for Best Picture. Also, I personally believe ‘Parasite’ is the best film of 2019. The film is inventive, pushes boundaries, and is universally beloved. A ‘Parasite’ win here would continue the Oscars trend of atypical films (at least, atypical to the Oscars) winning Best Picture that started in with ‘Moonlight’ and continued with ‘The Shape of Water’ before taking two steps back with ‘Green Book’.
The fact that both ‘1917’ and ‘Parasite’ are the frontrunners is interesting because neither one has an acting nomination, which the Best Picture winner almost always has. Best Picture winners typically have a Best Editing nod too, which ‘1917’ doesn’t have. ‘Parasite’ has a Best Editing nomination, but no foreign-language film has ever won Best Picture. If I were to pick the safe choice here, I’d say ‘1917’ will win. But I’m going to go against my better judgement and pick ‘Parasite’ because it’s what I hope will win.
Will Win: Parasite
Could Win: 1917
Should Win: Parasite
Dark Horse: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should’ve Been Nominated: Booksmart, The Farewell, Hustlers, Knives Out, Luce, Uncut Gems, Us
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Martin Scorsese (‘The Irishman’), Todd Phillips (‘Joker’), Sam Mendes (‘1917’), Quentin Tarantino (‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’), Bong Joon-ho (‘Parasite’).
Back in the day, Best Picture and Best Director used to go hand-in-hand. That started to change starting in 2013, when Ang Lee won Best Director for ‘Life of Pi’ and ‘Argo’ won Best Picture. Since then, the winners for the two categories have diverged every year except in 2018, when Guillermo del Toro won both categories for ‘The Shape of Water’. This year could go either way due to the tight race between ‘1917’ and ‘Parasite’. Everything in me wants to believe Bong Joon-ho will win Best Director for his masterpiece ‘Parasite’, but you’ve gotta go with precedence in this category. The truth is, over the last ten years the winner of the Directors Guild of America Awards (DGA) has won the Oscar equivalent every time except once (when Ben Affleck was surprisingly shut out of the Oscars directing category for ‘Argo’). Sam Mendes won the DGA this year, and so it’s almost assured he’ll win the Oscar.
Will Win: Sam Mendes (‘1917’)
Could Win: Bong Joon-ho (‘Parasite’)
Should Win: Bong Joon-ho
Dark Horse: Quentin Tarantino (‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Greta Gerwig (‘Little Women’), Rian Johnson (‘Knives Out’), Jordan Peele (‘Us’), The Safdie Brothers (‘Uncut Gems’), Lorene Scafaria (‘Hustlers’), Lulu Wang (‘The Farewell’)
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Antonio Banderas (‘Pain and Glory’), Leonardo DiCaprio (‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’), Adam Driver (‘Marriage Story’), Joaquin Phoenix (‘Joker’), Jonathan Pryce (‘The Two Popes’)
You’d be a fool not to put down Joaquin Phoenix as the predicted winner for Best Actor, as he’s literally won every Oscars precursor award.
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix (‘Joker’)
Could Win: Antonio Banderas (‘Pain and Glory’)
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix
Dark Horse: Adam Driver (‘Marriage Story’)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Taron Egerton (‘Rocketman’), Michael B. Jordan (‘Just Mercy’), Kelvin Harrison Jr. (‘Luce’), Viveik Kalra (‘Blinded by the Light’), Adam Sandler (‘Uncut Gems’)
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (‘Harriet’), Scarlett Johansson (‘Marriage Story’), Saoirse Ronan (‘Little Women’), Charlize Theron (‘Bombshell’), Renee Zellweger (‘Judy’)
Like Joaquin Phoenix, the Best Actress category is pretty much a lock for Renee Zellweger. She’s won all of the awards leading up to the Oscars.
Will Win: Renee Zellweger (‘Judy’)
Could Win: Scarlett Johansson (‘Marriage Story’)
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan (‘Little Women’)
Dark Horse: Saoirse Ronan
Should’ve Been Nominated: Ana de Armas (‘Knives Out’), Lupita Nyong’o (‘Us’), Alfre Woodard (‘Clemency’)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Tom Hanks (‘A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood’), Anthony Hopkins (‘The Two Popes’), Al Pacino (‘The Irishman’), Joe Pesci (‘The Irishman’), Brad Pitt (‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’).
I’m going to sound like a broken record but, like the previous two acting categories, this one is already predetermined based on who’s been winning all the awards leading up to the Oscars, and that person is Brad Pitt.
Will Win: Brad Pitt (‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’)
Could Win: Joe Pesci (‘The Irishman’)
Should Win: Al Pacino (‘The Irishman’)
Should’ve Been Nominated: Timothee Chalamet (‘Little Women’), Jamie Foxx (‘Just Mercy’), Aldis Hodge (‘Clemency’), Rob Morgan (‘Just Mercy’), Song Kang-ho (‘Parasite’)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Kathy Bates (‘Richard Jewell’), Laura Dern (‘Marriage Story’), Scarlett Johansson (‘Jojo Rabbit’), Florence Pugh (‘Little Women’), Margot Robbie (‘Bombshell’)
The fourth and final acting category will follow the same theme as the others this year. Laura Dern has been winning all the awards for her role in ‘Marriage Story’ and is expected to win again here.
Will Win: Laura Dern (‘Marriage Story’)
Could Win: Florence Pugh (‘Little Women’)
Should Win: Florence Pugh
Should’ve Been Nominated: Julia Fox (‘Uncut Gems’), Jennifer Lopez (‘Hustlers’), Park So-dam (‘Parasite’)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Knives Out, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
Quentin Tarantino is a regular in this category, having previously been nominated for ‘Inglorious Basterds’ and winning twice for ‘Pulp Fiction’ and ‘Django Unchained’. He has a strong chance of winning again for ‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’. However, this is a two-way race, and there’s a chance the-little-engine-that-could , ‘Parasite’, may win. It’s tough to say, because, again, ‘Parasite’ is the first South Korean film ever yo be nominated. So any win from the film will be unprecedented. Working against the film in this category is the fact that it’s in Korean. But maybe the fact that it’s even nominated means it has a strong following, one that may be enough to push across the finish line.
Will Win: Parasite
Could Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win: Parasite
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Farewell, Uncut Gems, Us
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, The Two Popes
I think the top two contenders here are ‘Jojo Rabbit’ (written by Taika Waititi) and ‘Little Women’ (written by Greta Gerwig’). While I think Gerwig deserves the win here, I’m going to guess Waititi will ultimately win.
Will Win: Jojo Rabbit
Could Win: Little Women
Should Win: Little Women
Dark Horse: The Irishman
Should’ve Been Nominated: Hustlers, Luce
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Nominees: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, I Lost My Body, Klaus, Missing Link, Toy Story 4
I’ve only seen two of the nominees (‘How to Train Your Dragon 3’ and ‘Toy Story 4’). Disney is a consistent favorite in this category and, though this is technically Pixar, I’m going to guess ‘Toy Story 4’ will win.
Will Win: Toy Story 4
Could Win: Klaus
Should Win: Toy Story 4
Dark Horse: Klaus
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Nominees: Corpus Christi (Poland), Honeyland (North Macedonia), Les Miserables (France), Pain and Glory (Spain), Parasite (South Korea)
Any time a film is nominated in this category and Best Picture, it wins this category. This year, that film is ‘Parasite’.
Will Win: Parasite
Could Win: Pain and Glory
Should Win: Parasite
BEST DOCUMENTARY - FEATURE
Nominees: American Factory, The Cave, The Edge of Democracy, For Sama, Honeyland
There’s no clear frontrunner for this category. ‘American Factory’ has the biggest name attached to it (Barack and Michelle Obama), and it won the DGA equivalent. However, ‘For Sama’ won at the BAFTAs. And ‘Honeyland’ is the first film to be nominated for Best Documentary and Best International Feature. And the film that’s been winning many of the awards leading up to the Oscars, ‘Apollo 11’, isn’t even nominated here.
Will Win: Honeyland
Could Win: American Factory
BEST DOCUMENTARY - SHORT SUBJECT
Nominees: In the Absence, Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl), Life Overtakes Me, St. Louis Superman, Walk Run Cha-Cha
Will Win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
Could Win: St. Louis Superman
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Nominees: Brotherhood, Nefta Football Club, The Neighbors’ Window, Saria, A Sister
Will Win: The Neighbors’ Window
Could Win: Brotherhood
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Nominees: Dcera (Daughter), Hair Love, Kitbull, Memorable, Sister
Will Win: Hair Love
Could Win: Kitbull
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Nominees: Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
The frontrunner here is Hildur Gudnadottir’s haunting score for ‘Joker’, fresh off her win at The Golden Globes. There’s a chance Thomas Newman may finally get a win after 14 nominations for his work on ‘1917’.
Will Win: Joker
Could Win: 1917
Should Win: Joker
Dark Horse: Little Women
Should’ve Been Nominated: Avengers: Endgame, The Farewell, The Last Black Man in San Francisco, Luce, Uncut Gems, Us
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees: “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” (‘Toy Story 4’), “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” (‘Rocketman’), “I’m Standing with You” (‘Breakthrough’), “Into the Unknown” (‘Frozen 2’), “Stand Up” (‘Harriet’)
‘Frozen 2’ may be nominated here, but “Into the Unknown” just hasn’t caught on like “Let It Go” did in 2013. Also, “Show Yourself” should’ve been nominated, damnit! It’s the superior song!! The favorite here is Elton John’s “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” resulting in his second win, after “Can You Feel the Love Tonight” from ‘The Lion King’.
Will Win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” (‘Rocketman’)
Could Win: “Into the Unknown” (‘Frozen 2’)
Should Win: “Stand Up” (‘Harriet’)
Dark Horse: “Stand Up”
Should’ve Been Nominated: “Show Yourself” (‘Frozen 2’), “Spirit” (‘The Lion King’)
BEST SOUND EDITING
Nominees: Ford v Ferrari, Joker, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
The Sound Editing and Sound Mixing used to go hand-in-hand, with the same film winning both awards. That was typical at the beginning of the last decade, but the trend dissipated over the last several years, though the last two years did feature the same winners. This year, the two frontrunners for both awards are ‘Ford v Ferrari’ and ‘1917’. I’m going to guess ‘Ford v Ferrari’ wins both sound categories.
Will Win: Ford v Ferrari
Could Win: 1917
Should’ve Been Nominated: Parasite, Uncut Gems
BEST SOUND MIXING
Nominees: Ad Astra, Ford v Ferrari, Joker, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Will Win: Ford v Ferrari
Could Win: 1917
Should’ve Been Nominated: Parasite, Uncut Gems
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
This is a three-way race between ‘1917’, ‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’, and ‘Parasite’. I’m going to guess ‘Once Upon a Time’ wins thanks to its Hollywood nostalgia.
Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could Win: 1917
Should Win: Parasite
Dark Horse: Parasite
Should’ve Been Nominated: Knives Out
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees: The Irishman, Joker, The Lighthouse, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Roger Deakins is almost certainly going to win for ‘1917’, which is kind of funny to think considering it took him 14 nominations before finally winning one for ‘Blade Runner 2049’. The one-take look of ‘1917’ is stunning, and there’s precedence in this type of film winning before: ‘Birdman’ and ‘The Revenant’, both from cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki.
Will Win: 1917
Could Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should Win: 1917
Dark Horse: Joker
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Last Black Man in San Francisco, Little Women, Parasite, Queen & Slim
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Nominees: Bombshell, Joker, Judy, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, 1917
The two frontrunners here are ‘Bombshell’ and ‘Joker’. I think ‘Bombshell’ will take the win thanks to its efforts in making its actors look so much like the real-life Fox players.
Will Win: Bombshell
Could Win: Joker
Should Win: Bombshell
Dark Horse: Judy
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
This is a close race between three contenders: ‘Jojo Rabbit’, ‘Little Women’, and ‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’. I suspect ‘Once Upon a Time’ will win thanks to its nostalgic appeal.
Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could Win: Little Women
Should’ve Been Nominated: Us
BEST FILM EDITING
Nominees: Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Parasite
‘Ford v Ferrari’ is likely to win all the technical categories it’s nominated in, but I’m hoping ‘Parasite’ will win this category. If it does, it would be a strong sign that the film will win in many of the other categories it’s nominated in, including Best Picture.
Will Win: Parasite
Could Win: Ford v Ferrari
Should Win: Parasite
Dark Horse: The Irishman
Should’ve Been Nominated: Knives Out, Little Women, Luce, Uncut Gems, Us
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees: Avengers: Endgame, The Irishman, The Lion King, 1917, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
This race is between ‘Avengers: Endgame’ and ‘1917’. I think ‘1917’ will ultimately win because the category tends to go for films with less flashy special effects. I mean, just take a look at the previous winners compared to the nominees you expected to win:
‘First Man’ beat ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ and ‘Ready Player One’
‘Blade Runner 2049’ beat ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2’, ‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’, and ‘War for the Planet of the Apes’
‘The Jungle Book’ beat ‘Doctor Strange’ and ‘Rogue One: A Star Wars Story’
‘Ex Machina’ beat ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’