The 94th Academy Awards is this Sunday! So, here’s my annual Oscars predictions post. If you’re thinking about entering my Outguess Kent Contest, this post will be helpful to you as a sort of cheat sheet, especially if you’re unfamiliar with the politics of the Oscars race. Please note: some of my predictions here are different from my original predictions listed in the contest. This is because of some late developments (wins) at some major awards after I published my contest blog post. However, my predictions listed below WILL NOT be considered for my Outguess Kent Contest, only my original predictions will.

Best Picture

Nominees:

• Belfast

• CODA

• Don’t Look Up

• Drive My Car

• Dune

• King Richard

• Licorice Pizza

• Nightmare Alley

• The Power of the Dog

• West Side Story

It’s going to be really interesting to see which films wins Best Picture Sunday night. For the longest time, the clear frontrunner has been Netflix’s The Power of the Dog. Not only does the film lead the night with the most nominations (12), but it’s also won some of the most important precursor awards that usually lead to a BP win, including the BAFTAs, Critics Choice Awards, Directors Guild Awards, and, to a lesser extent, the Golden Globes. The main thing that would work against TPOTD is that it’s from Netflix, and despite having Best Picture contenders in the past, Netflix has never been able to win the big prize, likely due to anti-streaming bias from many voting members. But this may not be an issue this year because it’s biggest competitor also hails from a streaming service! For awhile, it seemed like TPOTD had it in the bag. But recently, Apple TV Plus’s little seen film, CODA, has been taking in some surprising wins, including top prizes at the Producers Guild Awards and Screen Actors Guild Awards. I think the Best Picture category’s ranked-choice voting system (the only category to use it) will benefit CODA the most since it’s the crowd-pleasing picture that probably has more broad appeal than TPOTD, but I’m going to stick with my gut and say Netflix will finally pull off a win. The usually-predictable Oscars BP race now appears to be a nail-biter, and no matter which of these two films wins, it’ll be the first film from a streaming service to win Best Picture, and the second film in a row to win Best Picture that’s directed by a woman!

Having seen eight of the ten nominees, I’d be fine with any film winning EXCEPT West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, and Don’t Look Up. Please, god, don’t let any of these win. And if there’s a miracle, Drive My Car (or even Dune) would be an exciting win.

Will Win: The Power of the Dog

Could Win: CODA

Should Win: Drive My Car

Should’ve Been Nominated: Mass, tick, tick… BOOM!

Best Director

Nominees:

• Kenneth Branagh — Belfast

• Ryusuke Hamaguchi — Drive My Car

• Paul Thomas Anderson — Licorice Pizza

• Jane Campion — The Power of the Dog

• Steven Spielberg — West Side Story

Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) recently won the top prize at the Director’s Guild Awards, so it’s safe to say she’ll take the directing prize at the Oscars, too. The DGAs and Oscars usually go hand-in-hand in this category, though not always (most recently, in 2019 when the DGAs gave the award to Sam Mendes for 1917, while the Oscars gave the award to Bong Joon-ho for Parasite). Campion is the only woman to be nominated for Best Director twice, an appalling statistic. And if she wins, it’ll be the first time a woman has won this award two years in a row, another appalling statistic. Also, it’d be only the third time a woman has won Best Director. Phew!

Will Win: Jane Campion

Could Win: Steven Spielberg

Should Win: Ryusuke Hamaguchi

Should’ve Been Nominated: Denis Villeneuve (Dune), Jon M. Chu (In the Heights), James Gunn (The Suicide Squad)

Best Actor

Nominees:

• Javier Bardem — Being the Ricardos

• Benedict Cumberbatch — The Power of the Dog

• Andrew Garfield — tick, tick… BOOM!

• Will Smith — King Richard

• Denzel Washington — The Tragedy of Macbeth

I think Will Smith will win his first Oscar this Sunday for his lead performance in King Richard. His strongest competitor is Benedict Cumberbatch, since Cumberbatch’s film is the frontrunner for Best Picture, after all. But with Smith having won the BAFTA, SGA, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice Awards, it seems like this is his award to lose.

Will Win: Will Smith

Could Win: Benedict Cumberbatch

Should Win: Andrew Garfield

Should’ve Been Nominated: Nicolas Cage (Pig), Jason Isaacs (Mass), Hidetoshi Nishijima (Drive My Car)

Best Actress

Nominees:

• Jessica Chastain — The Eyes of Tammy Faye

• OIivia Colman — The Lost Daughter

• Penelope Cruz — Parallel Mothers

• Nicole Kidman — Being the Ricardos

• Kristen Stewart — Spencer

This one is a big harder to predict as I’ve only seen two of these films, and no one actress has completely swept precursor awards. None of these actresses were nominated at the BAFTAs. Jessica Chastain won the SAG and Critics Choice Awards, and Nicole Kidman won the Golden Globes. This isn’t much to work off of, but my best bet is on Chastain. However, I’ve been seeing a growing chorus for Penelope Cruz online lately, so there’s a good chance she may pull off a surprise win Sunday night!

Will Win: Jessica Chastain

Could Win: Penelope Cruz

Should Win: Kristen Stewart

Dark Horse: Kristen Stewart

Should’ve Been Nominated: Jodie Comer (The Last Duel), Martha Plimpton (Mass), Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World)

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

• Ciaran Hinds — Belfast

• Troy Kotsur — CODA

• Jesse Plemons — The Power of the Dog

• J.K. Simmons — Being the Ricardos

• Kodi Smit-McPhee — The Power of the Dog

This is a two-way race between Troy Kotsur (CODA) and Kodi Smit-McPhee, and the likely winner is Kotsur. He’s already won at at the SAGs, BAFTAs, and Critics Choice Awards, while Smit-McPhee won at the Golden Globes. It also might not help that Smit-Mcphee’s co-star Jesse Plemons is also nominated in this category, risking a vote split.

Will Win: Troy Kotsur

Could Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee

Should Win: Troy Kotsur

Dark Horse: Ciaran Hinds

Should’ve Been Nominated: Jon Bernthal (King Richard), Colman Domingo (Zola), Andrew Garfield (Spider-Man: No Way Home), Tony Leung (Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings)

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

• Jessie Buckley — The Lost Daughter

• Ariana DeBose — West Side Story

• Judi Dench — Belfast

• Kirsten Dunst — The Power of the Dog

• Aunjanue Ellis — King Richard

60 years after Rita Moreno won this award for her portrayal of Anita in West Side Story, Ariana DeBose appears likely to repeat this feat. DeBose won at the SAGs, BAFTAs, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes.

Will Win: Ariana DeBose

Could Win: Aunjanue Ellis

Should Win: Aunjanue Ellis

Dark Horse: Kirsten Dunst

Should’ve Been Nominated: Rebecca Ferguson (Dune), Park Yoo-rim (Drive My Car), Medina Senghore (Those Who Wish Me Dead)

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees:

• Belfast

• Don’t Look Up

• King Richard

• Licorice Pizza

• The Worst Person in the World

This one can go any way, though I think it’s a three-way race between Belfast, Don’t Look Up, and Licorice Pizza. Belfast won at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, but Licorice Pizza won the BAFTA, while Don’t Look Up won the Writers Guild Awards.

Will Win: Don’t Look Up

Could Win: Licorice Pizza

Should Win: The Worst Person in the World

Dark Horse: Belfast

Should’ve Been Nominated: The Falls, Mass, Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy, Malignant

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:

• CODA

• Drive My Car

• Dune

• The Lost Daughter

• The Power of the Dog

Like Best Picture, this seemed like The Power of the Dog’s award to lose, but it doesn’t appear so clear-cut anymore. The film won at the Critics Choice Awards, but CODA won the BAFTA and WGAs. And I don’t think Drive My Car is completely out of the running just yet. Despite only being nominated in four categories, Drive My Car is nominated in four BIG categories: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best International Feature Film. Clearly, there’s strong fanbase for the Japanese film.

Will Win: The Power of the Dog

Could Win: CODA

Should Win: Drive My Car

Dark Horse: Drive My Car

Should’ve Been Nominated: The Suicide Squad

Best Animated Feature

Nominees:

• Encanto

• Flee

• Luca

• The Mitchells vs. The Machines

• Raya and the Last Dragon

Disney and Pixar run this category with a combined 14 wins and 29 nominations. I do think Disney’s Encanto is the frontrunner here, but I wouldn’t count out Neon’s Flee or Netflix/Sony’s The Mitchells vs. The Machines just yet. In my opinion, Encanto isn’t as strong as many previous Disney films. And Sony’s win a few years ago for Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse shows they can hold up their own against Disney. Similarly, The Mitchells vs. The Machines offers refreshing and ambitious animation alongside universal critical acclaim. The same with Flee, another critical darling, but which tackles a serious subject matter and true story of a refugee from Afghanistan. As of this writing, Flee has won 42 major awards, Encnato won 23, and The Mitchells vs. The Machines 19.

Will Win: Flee

Could Win: Encanto

Should Win: The Mitchells vs. The Machines

Dark Horse: The Mitchells vs. The Machines

Best International Feature Film

Nominees:

• Drive My Car (Japan)

• Flee (Denmark)

• The Hand of God (Italy)

• Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)

• The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

This is a three-way race between Drive My Car, Flee, and The Worst Person in the World, since these three are the only ones also nominated in other major categories. I think it’ll go to Drive My Car.

Will Win: Drive My Car

Could Win: The Worst Person in the World

Should Win: Drive My Car

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees:

• Ascension

• Attica

• Flee

• Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

• Writing with Fire

I didn’t watch a lot of documentaries last year, and I haven’t seen any of the ones nominated. But I loved The Rescue (streaming on Disney Plus), and it was one of my favorite films of the year, so I’m surprised it wasn’t nominated! Anyway, I think this is a two-way race between Flee and Summer of Soul.

Will Win: Flee

Could Win: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Dark Horse: Attica

Should’ve Been Nominated: The Rescue

Best Documentary Short Subject

Nominees:

• Audible

• Lead Me Home

• The Queen of Basketball

• Three Songs for Benazir

• When We Were Bullies

Will Win: The Queen of Basketball

Could Win: Audible

Best Live Action Short Film

Nominees:

• Ala Kachuu

• The Dress

• The Long Goodbye

• On My Mind

• Please Hold

Will Win: The Long Goodbye

Could Win: The Dress

Best Animated Short Subject

Nominees:

• Affairs of the Art

• Bestia

• BoxBallet

• Robin Robin

• The Windshield Wiper

Will Win: Robin Robin

Could Win: The Windshield Wiper

Best Original Score

Nominees:

• Don’t Look Up

• Dune

• Encanto

• Parallel Mothers

• The Power of the Dog

This is a two-way race between Dune and The Power of the Dog. While I do think Dune is the frontrunner because it’s won some of the biggest precursors, including the BAFTAs, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes, when it did lose in other awards circles, it was usually to The Power of the Dog. Hans Zimmer (Dune) has been nominated 12 times in this category, but only won once—in 1995 for The Lion King. Every time I thought he had the best score of the year, like with Inception or Interstellar, he lost. I feel like that will likely happen again, this time to the beloved The Power of the Dog (scored by Johnny Greenwood of Radiohead).

Will Win: The Power of the Dog

Could Win: Dune

Should Win: Dune

Should’ve Been Nominated: Drive My Car, Eternals, No Time to Die, Raya and the Last Dragon, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Best Original Song

Nominees:

• “Be Alive” from King Richard

• “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto

• “Down to Joy” from Belfast

• “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

• “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days

This is likely a two-way race between “Dos Oruguitas” and “No Time to Die.” I totally thought this would be a race between Encanto and Beyonce (“Be Alive”), but Billie Eilish’s “No Time to Die” has been racking up awards after awards, so I do think that’s the song to beat. But my gut wants to believe The Academy will make the right decision and award this to “Dos Oruguitas.”

Will Win: “Dos Oruguitas”

Could Win: “No Time to Die”

Should Win: “Dos Oruguitas”

Dark Horse: “Be Alive”

Should’ve Been Nominated: “Beyond the Shore” (CODA), “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” (Encanto)

Best Sound

Nominees:

• Belfast

• Dune

• No Time to Die

• The Power of the Dog

• West Side Story

Will Win: Dune

Could Win: West Side Story

Should Win: Dune

Should’ve Been Nominated: In the Heights, Malignant, Mass, tick, tick… BOOM!

Best Production Design

Nominees:

• Dune

• Nightmare Alley

• The Power of the Dog

• The Tragedy of Macbeth

• West Side Story

Will Win: Dune

Could Win: West Side Story

Should Win: Dune

Should’ve Been Nominated: The Green Knight, In the Heights

Best Cinematography

Nominees:

• Dune

• Nightmare Alley

• The Power of the Dog

• The Tragedy of Macbeth

• West Side Story

All five of these nominees are very strong contenders and deserve the award, but I think this is a two-way race between The Power of the Dog and Dune. I want to believe Dune will win, but my gut tells me The Power of the Dog will pull through.

Will Win: The Power of the Dog

Could Win: Dune

Should Win: Dune

Dark Horse: West Side Story

Should’ve Been Nominated: The Green Knight, In the Heights, No Time to Die

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees:

• Coming 2 America

• Cruella

• Dune

• The Eyes of Tammy Faye

• House of Gucci

Will Win: Cruella

Could Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Should Win: Cruella

Should’ve Been Nominated: The Green Knight, Malignant, Spencer

Best Costume Design

Nominees:

• Cruella

• Cyrano

• Dune

• Nightmare Alley

• West Side Story

Will Win: Cruella

Could Win: Dune

Should Win: Dune

Dark Horse: West Side Story

Should’ve Been Nominated: Eternals, The Green Knight, Spencer

Best Film Editing

Nominees:

• Don’t Look Up

• Dune

• King Richard

• The Power of the Dog

• tick, tick… BOOM!

This is a tough one. I’d like to believe this is a two-way race between Dune and The Power of the Dog, but The Academy has awarded the film with the MOST, not BEST, editing in the past (Bohemian Rhapsody), which means it could very well go to Don’t Look Up. But I’m hoping they make the right decision and give the award to Dune.

Will Win: Dune

Could Win: The Power of the Dog

Should Win: tick, tick… BOOM!

Dark Horse: Don’t Look Up

Should’ve Been Nominated: Drive My Car, The Rescue

Best Visual Effects

Nominees:

• Dune

• Free Guy

• No Time to Die

• Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

• Spider-Man: No Way Home

The biggest franchise in the world (the MCU) is always present in this category, but they still haven’t notched a win, so I doubt this year will be any different. I think Dune has this in the bag.

Will Win: Dune

Could Win: No Time to Die

Should Win: Dune

Should’ve Been Nominated: The Green Knight, Malignant