I can’t believe the Oscars is already here. I guess it makes sense thanks to the fact The Academy pushed the awards ceremony much earlier this year, up by three weeks! That means there was a smaller voting period, with less time other awards to influence the Academy members. Despite being such a strong year, the slate of nominees at the Oscars this year is disappointing. It’s yet another year featuring all-male directing nominees, a best picture slate featuring almost entirely white men, and 19 out of 20 acting nominees are white. This is all a surprise for an organization that’s been making effort to diversify its membership over the last four years after back-to-back #OscarsSoWhite controversies. But alas, these are the nominees we got this year and I’m still hoping for some exciting wins, mostly for Bong Joon-ho’s ‘Parasite’.

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite

The last time I correctly guessed this category was five years ago when ‘Birdman’ won, so I don’t exactly have the best track record. Out of the nine nominees, there’s a case to be made that only four have a decent shot at taking the big prize: ‘1917’, ‘The Irishman’, ‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’, and ‘Parasite’. The first three are the types of films the Oscars typically honors. They’re war epics, stories about the film industry, and/or from master directors. And of these three, ‘1917’ has the strongest chance of winning.

Martin Scorsese is used to having his films be nominated for Best Picture (his previously nominated films include ‘The Departed’, ‘Hugo’, and ‘The Wolf of Wall Street’), and he won Best Picture once - for ‘The Departed’ back in 2007. While ‘The Irishman’ is a gangster epic that brings back memories of his previous works, the fact that it’s a Netflix film works against it. No film from a streaming service has ever won the big prize, not even ‘Roma’ - the heavy favorite in last year’s race. There are still many in the Academy’s voting body who still view streaming services negatively.

Quentin Tarantino is another Oscar favorite with many Best Picture-nominated films, including ‘Pulp Fiction’, ‘Inglourious Basterds’, and ‘Django Unchained’, but he’s never been table to take the top prize. What works in favor of his latest film ‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’ is that the Oscars loves to honor films about the industry, like ‘The Artist’, ‘Argo’, and (briefly) ‘La La Land.’ Why I don’t see ‘Once Upon a Time’ winning is because, in my personal opinion, it’s easily Tarantino’s worst film. I must be an outlier because everyone seems to love the film, and it has a staggering 10 nominations.

Which leaves me with ‘1917’ and ‘Parasite’, the two frontrunners for Best Picture, with either win representing a different message from The Academy. A ‘1917’ win wouldn’t be bad (it’s a genuinely good film), just anticlimactic; it’s the type of film we’re used to seeing honored at the Oscars. A ‘Parasite’ win would be exciting, as it’s the first South Korean film to be nominated at the Oscars ever, not just for Best Picture. Also, I personally believe ‘Parasite’ is the best film of 2019. The film is inventive, pushes boundaries, and is universally beloved. A ‘Parasite’ win here would continue the Oscars trend of atypical films (at least, atypical to the Oscars) winning Best Picture that started in with ‘Moonlight’ and continued with ‘The Shape of Water’ before taking two steps back with ‘Green Book’.

The fact that both ‘1917’ and ‘Parasite’ are the frontrunners is interesting because neither one has an acting nomination, which the Best Picture winner almost always has. Best Picture winners typically have a Best Editing nod too, which ‘1917’ doesn’t have. ‘Parasite’ has a Best Editing nomination, but no foreign-language film has ever won Best Picture. If I were to pick the safe choice here, I’d say ‘1917’ will win. But I’m going to go against my better judgement and pick ‘Parasite’ because it’s what I hope will win.

Will Win: Parasite

Could Win: 1917

Should Win: Parasite

Dark Horse: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Should’ve Been Nominated: Booksmart, The Farewell, Hustlers, Knives Out, Luce, Uncut Gems, Us

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Martin Scorsese (‘The Irishman’), Todd Phillips (‘Joker’), Sam Mendes (‘1917’), Quentin Tarantino (‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’), Bong Joon-ho (‘Parasite’).

Back in the day, Best Picture and Best Director used to go hand-in-hand. That started to change starting in 2013, when Ang Lee won Best Director for ‘Life of Pi’ and ‘Argo’ won Best Picture. Since then, the winners for the two categories have diverged every year except in 2018, when Guillermo del Toro won both categories for ‘The Shape of Water’. This year could go either way due to the tight race between ‘1917’ and ‘Parasite’. Everything in me wants to believe Bong Joon-ho will win Best Director for his masterpiece ‘Parasite’, but you’ve gotta go with precedence in this category. The truth is, over the last ten years the winner of the Directors Guild of America Awards (DGA) has won the Oscar equivalent every time except once (when Ben Affleck was surprisingly shut out of the Oscars directing category for ‘Argo’). Sam Mendes won the DGA this year, and so it’s almost assured he’ll win the Oscar.

Will Win: Sam Mendes (‘1917’)

Could Win: Bong Joon-ho (‘Parasite’)

Should Win: Bong Joon-ho

Dark Horse: Quentin Tarantino (‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’)

Should’ve Been Nominated: Greta Gerwig (‘Little Women’), Rian Johnson (‘Knives Out’), Jordan Peele (‘Us’), The Safdie Brothers (‘Uncut Gems’), Lorene Scafaria (‘Hustlers’), Lulu Wang (‘The Farewell’)

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Antonio Banderas (‘Pain and Glory’), Leonardo DiCaprio (‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’), Adam Driver (‘Marriage Story’), Joaquin Phoenix (‘Joker’), Jonathan Pryce (‘The Two Popes’)

You’d be a fool not to put down Joaquin Phoenix as the predicted winner for Best Actor, as he’s literally won every Oscars precursor award.

Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix (‘Joker’)

Could Win: Antonio Banderas (‘Pain and Glory’)

Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix

Dark Horse: Adam Driver (‘Marriage Story’)

Should’ve Been Nominated: Taron Egerton (‘Rocketman’), Michael B. Jordan (‘Just Mercy’), Kelvin Harrison Jr. (‘Luce’), Viveik Kalra (‘Blinded by the Light’), Adam Sandler (‘Uncut Gems’)

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (‘Harriet’), Scarlett Johansson (‘Marriage Story’), Saoirse Ronan (‘Little Women’), Charlize Theron (‘Bombshell’), Renee Zellweger (‘Judy’)

Like Joaquin Phoenix, the Best Actress category is pretty much a lock for Renee Zellweger. She’s won all of the awards leading up to the Oscars.

Will Win: Renee Zellweger (‘Judy’)

Could Win: Scarlett Johansson (‘Marriage Story’)

Should Win: Saoirse Ronan (‘Little Women’)

Dark Horse: Saoirse Ronan

Should’ve Been Nominated: Ana de Armas (‘Knives Out’), Lupita Nyong’o (‘Us’), Alfre Woodard (‘Clemency’)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Tom Hanks (‘A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood’), Anthony Hopkins (‘The Two Popes’), Al Pacino (‘The Irishman’), Joe Pesci (‘The Irishman’), Brad Pitt (‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’).

I’m going to sound like a broken record but, like the previous two acting categories, this one is already predetermined based on who’s been winning all the awards leading up to the Oscars, and that person is Brad Pitt.

Will Win: Brad Pitt (‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’)

Could Win: Joe Pesci (‘The Irishman’)

Should Win: Al Pacino (‘The Irishman’)

Should’ve Been Nominated: Timothee Chalamet (‘Little Women’), Jamie Foxx (‘Just Mercy’), Aldis Hodge (‘Clemency’), Rob Morgan (‘Just Mercy’), Song Kang-ho (‘Parasite’)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Kathy Bates (‘Richard Jewell’), Laura Dern (‘Marriage Story’), Scarlett Johansson (‘Jojo Rabbit’), Florence Pugh (‘Little Women’), Margot Robbie (‘Bombshell’)

The fourth and final acting category will follow the same theme as the others this year. Laura Dern has been winning all the awards for her role in ‘Marriage Story’ and is expected to win again here.

Will Win: Laura Dern (‘Marriage Story’)

Could Win: Florence Pugh (‘Little Women’)

Should Win: Florence Pugh

Should’ve Been Nominated: Julia Fox (‘Uncut Gems’), Jennifer Lopez (‘Hustlers’), Park So-dam (‘Parasite’)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

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Nominees: Knives Out, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite

Quentin Tarantino is a regular in this category, having previously been nominated for ‘Inglorious Basterds’ and winning twice for ‘Pulp Fiction’ and ‘Django Unchained’. He has a strong chance of winning again for ‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’. However, this is a two-way race, and there’s a chance the-little-engine-that-could , ‘Parasite’, may win. It’s tough to say, because, again, ‘Parasite’ is the first South Korean film ever yo be nominated. So any win from the film will be unprecedented. Working against the film in this category is the fact that it’s in Korean. But maybe the fact that it’s even nominated means it has a strong following, one that may be enough to push across the finish line.