Predictions for the 89th Academy Awards
Best Picture
The Best Picture race, no matter how many films are actually nominated, tends to be a two-way race every year and this year's ceremony is no different. No doubt, this is a 'La La Land' vs. 'Moonlight' year. Both films are amazing films in their own way - they're two of my favorite films from 2016, but there's a certain type of film that The Academy usually awards the highest honor, and unfortunately, it's not always the best film. 'Moonlight' is arguably the more important and challenging film; it's the type of film more people need to see. However, I predict the award will go to 'La La Land' because it's a more crowd-pleasing and feel good film that most Academy members will relate to. Since The Academy introduced the preferential ballot system it has awarded Best Picture to films that dealt with the arts - basically, films that were about Hollywood - three out of six times. 'La La Land' is in a similar boat, which is why I expect it to win.
Best Director
The director of the film that wins Best Picture usually wins Best Director, but that hasn't been the case recently. In the past four years, in fact, Best Picture and Best Director shared wins only once (in 2014 for 'Birdman'). That's a really unusual pattern, which is why I'm hesitant to choose Damien Chazelle as Best Director for 'La La Land'. If it were to go to anyone else, I'd say Barry Jenkins for his transcending work on 'Moonlight'. However, I think this year will go back to tradition and Chazelle will win because the recent Best Director winners have been directors with technically ambitious films: Ang Lee's 3D-epic 'Life of Pi', Alfonso Cuaron's long takes on 'Gravity', and Alejandro Inarritu's 'Birdman' and 'The Revenant'), and 'La La Land' features several creative musical sequences, some of which include these infamous long takes.
Best Actor
Originally I wrote down Casey Affleck for this award, considering he's been getting a lot of buzz and awards recognition for his role in 'Manchester by the Sea', and because Denzel Washington has already won two Oscars. However, Affleck is facing sexual harassment allegations and Denzel Washington won the Screen Actors' Guild Awards, which is usually a good Oscars indicator. So I switched my prediction from Casey Affleck to Denzel Washington for 'Fences'.
Best Actress
Like Best Actor, I originally wrote down a different winner for this category, this time Natalie Portman for 'Jackie'. However, with 'La La Land' getting a lot of attention, and Emma Stone winning the SAG Award, another strong Oscar predictor, I have to go with Emma Stone for 'La La Land'.
Best Supporting Actor
He may have had a short presence in the film, but he still made a powerful impact in 'Moonlight'. Having won the SAG Award, I have to go with Mahershala Ali. Easily.
Best Supporting Actress
It's about time Viola Davis wins an Oscar and this seems to be the year. She's been nominated twice before and lost, but it looks like third time's the charm with her powerful performance in 'Fences'.
Best Original Screenplay
The Best Picture usually wins one of the screenplay awards too. The Best Original Screenplay award is basically a two-way race between frontrunner 'La La Land' and dark horse/third-place Best Picture nominee 'Manchester by the Sea'. Since I think 'La La Land' will win Best Picture, I strongly feel director-writer Damien Chazelle will win for his screenplay for 'La La Land.'
Best Adapted Screenplay
It's kind of funny. Two years ago Damien Chazelle's original screenplay for 'Whiplash' was placed in the Adapted Screenplay category due to a technicality: 'Whiplash' originally a short film that Chazelle made in order to get financing to produce the feature length version. Now this year, Chazelle's biggest competition 'Moonlight' is having a similar issue: the film is based on an un-produced play written by Tarell Alvin McCraney. If it weren't for this technicality, I'd guess August Wilson would win for 'Fences', adapted from his own play. However, writer-director Barry Jenkins and McCraney will definitely win for 'Moonlight' since it's a top-two contender for Best Picture.
Best Animated Feature Film
As someone who loves animated films, especially Disney and Pixar, this is a heartbreaking category to talk about. First of all, how is 'Finding Dory' not nominated? Second of all, I kind of wished Disney released its two films in different years so they wouldn't have to compete against one another, but I guess a potential shouldn't prevent a film from being released. The studio's two films, 'Zootopia' and 'Moana', are both deserving of this award and I love them both. Any other year I truly believe 'Moana' would win, but this year it will definitely go to the more challenging and topical film, 'Zootopia'.
Best Foreign Language Film
Due to President Trump's controversial Muslim Ban, director Asghar Farhadi will not be able to attend the ceremony. I think this issue brought more attention to his film, and voters will probably want to send a message to the Trump administration, so Farhadi's 'The Salesman' is my pick to win this award.
Best Documentary - Feature
Ava DuVernay's mass incarceration documentary '13th' has gotten a lot of attention ever since it debuted on Netflix. A part of me feels like 'O.J.: Made in America' may win the award since it's much longer than a feature length documentary - it's a five part miniseries. However, my gut tells me '13th' will win in the end.
Best Documentary - Short Subject
Since the Oscars doesn't shy away from politics, I feel like 'The White Helmets' will win since it's relevant, specifically in regards to the issues going on in Syria. With that being said, 'Watani: My Homeland' should have an equal chance of winning as it follows a Syrian refugee family's journey to a new life in Germany. In the end, I think I will have to go with 'The White Helmets'.
Best Live Action Short Film
I don't really have any analysis for this category since I haven't seen any of the films. I just predict 'Sing' since I've seen many others predict it will win.
Best Animated Short Film
Pixar doesn't usually do well in this category, but 'Piper' is the only short I'm inclined to go with that one. However, the National Film Board of Canada has a much better track record in this category compared to Pixar, so I think their short 'Blind Vaysha' will win over 'Piper' in the end.
Best Original Score
People love 'La La Land's' music. The film's going to win this award.
Best Original Song
Again, if it were any other year 'Moana' would win for it's beautiful song "How Far I'll Go." 'La La Land' has two songs nominated here, for "City of Stars" and "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)". The latter is arguably more emotional and it's probably the best song in the film. However, "City of Stars" has a catchier tune and has won more awards, so I think it will win.
Best Sound Editing
Sound Editing and Sound Mixing usually comes hand in hand, so my best bet is 'La La Land' for both categories, especially considering it's a musical.
Best Sound Mixing
See previous category.
Best Production Design
This category hasn't gone to the Best Picture winner in a long time, so I'm hesitant to choose 'La La Land'. I'm thinking 'Hail, Caesar!' or 'Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them' are likely to win, but something just tells me 'La La Land' will break with precedent and win this category too.
Best Cinematography
Cinematography is usually my easiest category to predict because it usually goes to the most technically ambitious, and beautiful, films. Having seen 'Arrival' and 'Moonlight', both films feature stunning works by DP's Bradford Young and James Laxton respectively. But alas, I feel like 'La La Land' will sweep the night and win this category too.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
I've seen two of the three nominees ('Star Trek Beyond' and 'Suicide Squad'), and out of the two I feel like 'Star Trek Beyond' had more creative makeup and hairstyling, so I predict it will win.
Best Costume Design
The award hasn't gone to the Best Picture winner lately either, but I think 'La La Land' will continue to break precedent and sweep up this award.
Best Film Editing
The Best Picture winner usually wins Best Film Editing too, but that hasn't been the case for five out of the past six years. Again, I think 'La La Land' will bring back the tradition and pick up this award too.
Best Visual Effects
'The Jungle Book' has this in the bag, considering it's magnificent marriage of CGI and live action visuals.
