Predictions for the 90th Academy Awards

Last year I did pretty poorly in predicting the outcome for each award at the Oscars. I correctly guessed 14 out of 24 categories, while my best friend got 15 correct (ugh). But if there's one category I was glad to be wrong in, it was last year's Best Picture winner. 'La La Land' is the type of film that the Academy usually goes for. When 'Moonlight' won unexpectedly, it was a pleasant surprise, and we finally started seeing the effects of the Academy's diversity initiatives in its voting body. I believe the nominees this year are a result of this continuing diversity among the Academy members - one that's becoming younger, less white, and less male (though it's still largely older white males).

Despite how exciting the nominees are this year, the Oscars is still fairly a predictable affair usually by looking at the results of other major awards. Every year, there are frontrunners in each major category, and you can usually narrow down major categories to two potential winners. This year is no different.

Best Picture

It's safe to say the only films that really have a chance of winning the top prize is 'The Shape of Water' and 'Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri'. These two films have been battling in almost every major awards ceremony. 'The Shape of Water' is the frontrunner in a traditional sense since it leads this year's Oscars with 13 nominations. But a lot of times the film with the most nominations don't necessarily sweep the ceremony. And the fact that it's a fantasy films makes me feel like the Academy will go for the traditional drama that is 'Three Billboards'. But what makes me hesitant to name 'Three Billboards' the winner is that it's a somewhat divisive film due to Sam Rockwell's racist cop character - the people who hate the film really hate it.

Another aspect that's against 'Three Billboards' is the fact that its director did not get a Best Director nod. Usually that's a precursor to an eventual Best Picture win, though it's not an absolute ('Argo' was the last film that won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination).

I want to say this year's diversifying voting body will award 'The Shape of Water' as Best Picture, but my gut says 'Three Billboards' will win, so I'm going with my gut.

Best Director

You're crazy if you think anyone but Guillermo del Toro will win for 'The Shape of Water'. The nominees are all talented, and I'd be excited if any one of them won, but all of the other awards point to a predictable win for del Toro.

Best Actor

Gary Oldman is a shoe-in to win this award, as he's done in about every other major awards ceremony. If anyone can upset him, it'd be Timothee Chalamet for his heartbreaking performance in 'Call Me By Your Name'. But alas, I predict the Oscars will be another win for Oldman.

Best Actress

Like Gary Oldman, Frances McDormand has been sweeping awards for her performance in 'Three Billboards' so she's a safe bet to win this category. The runner-up would be Sally Hawkins for 'The Shape of Water'.

Best Supporting Actor

There's a trend here when it comes to the acting categories, and like the ones before this, there's a safe bet. Sam Rockwell leads the pack in this category and I expect a predictable win for his performance in 'Three Billboards'. A potential upset would be by Willem Dafoe for 'The Florida Project'.

Best Supporting Actress

Allison Janney has this in the bag for 'I, Tonya'. Again, she's been winning major awards for her performance. Laurie Metcalf is her biggest competition for her performance in 'Lady Bird'. Metcalf has also won many awards, but I still think Janney will win.

Best Original Screenplay

This is a pretty strong group of nominees. Four of the five nominees are Best Picture nominees, so you can bet one of those four will win this category. My prediction is Jordan Peele will win for his groundbreaking social-thriller 'Get Out'. Seeing as 'Get Out' will most likely not win any other major award at the Oscars, this seems like a satisfying consolation prize.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Sorry, 'Logan' will not be winning this Oscar, meaning a superhero film will still not have won an Academy Award for screenwriting. 'Call Me By Your Name' is the only Best Picture nominee in this category so it's a safe bet to say James Ivory will win for his lovely adaptation of the coming-of-age novel of the same name.

Best Animated Feature Film

C'mon, it's Pixar. 'Coco' is going to win.

Best Foreign Language Film

'A Fantastic Woman' is the only nominee I've been hearing praise about so I have a feeling it'll win.

Best Documentary - Feature

I'm not really educated in this category but judging from the word around the internet, my guess is 'Face Places' will win.

Best Documentary - Short Subject

For the same reasons as the previous category, my guess is 'Edith+Eddie' will win.

Best Live Action Short Film

I'm thinking 'DeKalb Elementary' will win.

Best Animated Short Film

I'm thinking Kobe Bryant's animated short 'Dear Basketball' will win.

Best Original Score

As much as I love Hans Zimmer and his pulse-pounding score for 'Dunkirk', I'm pretty sure Alexandre Desplat will win for 'The Shape of Water', and I'm fine with that. The score was a beautiful complement to everything we saw on screen.

Best Original Song

Only two songs have a chance of winning and it's "Remember Me" from 'Coco' and "This Is Me" from 'The Greatest Showman'. I'm going with "Remember Me" because it's a more emotional song, but I'd be happy with either one winning.

Best Sound Editing

Sound editing and sound mixing usually go hand-in-hand (though not always - last year they went to two separate films, resulting in me getting both categories wrong). With 'Dunkirk' being a war movie, and the sound awards usually going to war films, I think 'Dunkirk' will win both awards.

Best Sound Mixing

See previous category.

Best Production Design

'The Shape of Water' was a beauty. It's gonna win.

Best Cinematography

Will Roger Deakins finally win for 'Blade Runner 2049' after 14 Oscar nominations in this category? My gut says yes!

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Gary Oldman's transformation into Winston Churchill has been much discussed, so I'm sure 'Darkest Hour' will win.

Best Costume Design

'Phantom Thread', a film about costume design, will surely win.

Best Film Editing

'Dunkirk' will win for it's experimental and time-bending narrative. A potential upset could happen from 'Baby Driver', but I'm pretty sure 'Dunkirk' has this in the bag.

Best Visual Effects

I'm predicting a win for 'Blade Runner 2049', though I wouldn't be surprised if 'War for the Planet of the Apes' pulled an upset.