FOUR KENTS

View Original

My Predictions for the 90th Academy Awards Nominations

Kent Tong

I've written predictions for The Oscars in the past but I've never taken the time to predict the actual nominees. This will be fun experiment! Tomorrow is when nominations will be announced, and we've seen the results of other film awards, and these results are typically an indicator as to who and what will be nominated at the Oscars - except for the Golden Globes, which is a fancy awards show put on by no one from the industry and is pretty much meaningless.

I’m really excited about this year’s Oscars race because it has the potential to be the most unpredictable and exciting one ever! Usually there is an obvious front-runner by now, but all of the major awards seem to be split among several films. This makes it harder to predict who will actually win, but I’d rather have an unpredictable race than one that’s already won before it’s even begun. 

The following are my predictions based on trends and nominations from other ceremonies, such as The Screen Actors Guild, Directors Guild, and Producers Guild. There are 24 categories but I won't be prediction nominations for each ones, just the ones I am somewhat knowledgable in.

Best Picture

This category can have anywhere from five to ten nominees due to the complex nomination process. Anyone who is a member of the Academy of Motion Arts and Science can write in nominations for this category in preferential order, and any film with at least 5% of the #1 picks becomes a nominee. The previous three years have resulted in eight nominees, and the three years before that had nine. So I'm going to guess there will be eight this year. In addition, I feel like the nominations may be a little more diverse this year because after two back-to-back #OscarsSoWhite controversies, the Academy decided to expand its membership base to include more people of color and women, which I feel heavily impacted the surprising win for 'Moonlight' last year, despite 'La La Land' being the type of film that typically wins the highest prize.

Here are my predictions:

  • 'Call Me By Your Name' - I've only heard good things about this coming-of-age romance and I can't wait to see it. I'd be very surprised if it didn't get nominated.

  • 'Dunkirk' - I love Christopher Nolan but the Academy doesn't seem to love him as much as I do. Maybe it's because his last several films were either sci-fi or superhero, two genres that rarely get love at The Oscars. However, there is some precedent of Nolan's film getting a Best Picture nod - 'Inception' is his first and only film to get nominated for the award. And the fact that 'Dunkirk' isn't a sci-fi or superhero film works in its favor. The fact that it's a war film gives it an extra boost, actually.

  • 'Get Out' - this is a risky pick because horror films don't usually get nominated for Best Picture, but this was one of the best and most important films of 2017, and with the more diverse Academy membership base my fingers are crossed that Jordan Peele's debut social thriller gets its much-deserved nomination.

  • 'Lady Bird' - Greta Gerwig's solo directorial debut is probably the easiest one to predict because of its critical acclaim and presence in all the awards ceremonies.

  • 'The Post' - Steven Spielberg? Check. Meryl Streep? Check. Tom Hanks? Check. A premise that is extremely timely for today's political climate? Check, check, check!

  • 'The Shape of Water' - Guillermo del Toro is a brilliant filmmaker, but his films are very niche and never get recognized for Best Picture. This year feels different because 'The Shape of Water' has been sweeping so many awards. This is another risky pick because this category doesn't like to reward fantasy films, but like I said before, things are up in the air now that the voting body is more diverse.

  • 'Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri' - another prominent awards player I have yet to see (but I really want to - McDonagh's 'Seven Psychopaths' was my favorite film of 2012), I'm very confident 'Three Billboards' will be nominated.

  • The seven above are ones I'm very confident in, as well as ones that have a good chance but seem risky just based off of how previous Oscars have worked. However, the toughest prediction for me is which film would get the eighth and final nomination, and it's such a toss up! But if I had to just guess, I will go with 'The Florida Project’.

The following are strong contenders that may impact the Best Picture race with a surprise nomination:

  • 'All the Money in the World'

  • 'The Big Sick'

  • 'Darkest Hour'

  • 'Detroit'

  • 'The Disaster Artist'

  • 'I, Tonya'

  • 'Molly’s Game'

  • 'Phantom Thread'

Best Director

Best Picture and Best Director usually share nominees (i.e. if a film is nominated for Best Picture then there's a good chance the film's director is nominated for Best Director, and vice versa). However, ever since The Academy upped the Best Picture award to ten potential nominees, while keeping Best Director and all the other categories at just five nominees, it's been tougher to determine who would get nominated. It's safe to say all five Best Director nominees will have their films nominated for Best Picture. If the nominees are what I think they are, this will be a very exciting year. My predictions are:

  • Christopher Nolan ('Dunkirk')

  • Greta Gerwig ('Lady Bird')

  • Guillermo Del Toro ('The Shape of Water')

  • Jordan Peele ('Get Out')

  • Martin McDonagh ('Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

That's right. I'm predicting two people of color and a woman for Best Director - all in the same year. I'm hoping the diversifying Academy will result in this more interesting collection of Best Director nominees. Christopher Nolan has never been nominated for this category, despite pumping out some of the best films every year ('The Dark Knight', 'Inception', 'Interstellar'). Jordan Peele is a risky bet because, again, horror films don't usually get any love. Del Toro is another strong director who's never been recognized but the fact that he's been sweeping all the Best Director awards gives me a strong feeling that not only will he finally be nominated, he'll win it too. That would make it the fourth time out of the last five Academy Awards in which a Mexican director has won.

Potential Nominees:

  • Denis Villeneuve ('Blade Runner 2049')

  • Luca Guadagnino ('Call Me By Your Name')

  • Steven Spielberg ('The Post')

Best Actor & Actress

Unlike Best Director, the acting categories are not as strongly tied to Best Picture. Sure, you can always expect two or three actors in each category to correlate with a Best Picture nominee, but these categories can be more diverse and share more love to other films that didn't get nominated for Best Picture. My predictions:

Best Actor

  • Daniel Day-Lewis ('Phantom Thread')

  • Daniel Kaluuya ('Get Out') - if 'Get Out' gets nominated for Best Picture and/or Director, then Kaluuya has a chance at a Best Actor nod!

  • Gary Oldman ('Darkest Hour') - Oldman's been sweeping all the awards so there's no doubt he'll get a nomination and an eventual win.

  • James Franco ('The Disaster Artist') - there's a chance the bad press regarding Franco's sexual misconduct may affect his nomination chances. But you never know, if Casey Affleck can win Best Actor after his rape allegations, then maybe Franco will still get nominated.

  • Timothee Chalamet ('Call Me By Your Name') - Poor Chalamet has been coming in second place to Oldman in all the awards ceremonies, but it's okay since he's still young and his career's just started.

Potential Nominees:

  • Denzel Washington ('Roman J. Israel, Esq.')

  • Tom Hanks ('The Post')

Best Actress

Unfortunately I don't have much insight on this race but judging from all the other awards contests, this category will ultimately go to either Frances MacDormand or Saoirse Ronan.

  • Frances MacDormand ('Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri')

  • Margot Robbie ('I, Tonya')

  • Meryl Streep ('The Post')

  • Sally Hawkins ('The Shape of Water')

  • Saoirse Ronan ('Lady Bird')

Potential Nominees:

  • Jessica Chastain ('Molly's Game')

  • Michelle Williams ( 'All the Money in the World')

Best Supporting Actor & Actress

Best Supporting Actor

  • Armie Hammer ('Call Me By Your Name')

  • Christopher Plummer ('All the Money in the World') - I'm confident Plummer will be nominated and win this award. It's insane how impactful his performance appears to be (I haven't seen it yet, but the fact that he's been recognized for so many awards says something) considering he replaced Kevin Spacey in the 11th hour and shot all of his scenes in just nine days.

  • Michael Stuhlbarg ('Call Me By Your Name')

  • Sam Rockwell ('Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri')

  • William Defoe ('The Florida Project')

Potential Nominees:

  • Richard Jenkins ('The Shape of Water')

  • Woody Harrelson ('Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri')

Best Supporting Actress

  • Allison Janney ('I, Tonya')

  • Holly Hunter ('The Big Sick')

  • Hong Chau ('Downsizing')

  • Laurie Metcalf ('Lady Bird')

  • Mary J. Blige ('Mudbound')

Potential Nominees:

  • Octavia Spencer ('The Shape of Water')

  • Tiffany Hadish ( 'Girls’ Trip')

Best Original Screenplay

  • Christopher Nolan ('Dunkirk')

  • Greta Gerwig ('Lady Bird')

  • Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor ('The Shape of Water')

  • Jordan Peele ('Get Out')

  • Martin McDonagh ('Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri')

Okay, I didn't realize this happened until I made the predictions, but the nominees I've predicted for Best Director are the same exact five I've predicted for Best Original Screenplay. I don't think this has ever happened in the history of The Academy Awards, but it just goes to show how strong the films were this year, and how talented the pool is.

Potential nominees:

  • Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani ('The Big Sick')

  • Liz Hannah & Josh Singer ('The Post')

  • Paul Thomas Anderson ('Phantom Thread')

  • Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch ('The Florida Project')

  • Steven Rogers ('I, Tonya')

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Aaron Sorkin ('Molly's Game')

  • David Scarpa ('All the Money in the World')

  • Dee Rees & Virgil Williams ('Mudbound')

  • James Ivory ('Call Me By Your Name')

  • Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber ('The Disaster Artist')

Best Animated Feature Film

  • 'Coco'

  • 'Despicable Me 3'

  • 'The Lego Batman Movie'

  • 'Mary and the Witch's Flower'

I really don't know what all the nominees will be for this category - I couldn't even come up with five- but there's no way Pixar's 'Coco' won't be nominated. It's probably going to win, too. Also, considering 'Despicable Me 2' got nominated before - sighs - it probably means 'Despicable Me 3' has a chance at a nod too.

Best Original Score

  • Alexandre Desplat ('The Shape of Water')

  • Carter Burwell ('Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri')

  • Hans Zimmer ('Dunkirk')

  • John Williams ('The Post')

  • Michael Giacchino ('Coco')

Best Original Song

This is another one in which I really don't know what all the nominees will be, but I'm confident that these two will be nominated:

  • "Remember Me" ('Coco')

  • "This Is Me" ('The Greatest Showman')

Best Cinematography

  • Dan Laustsen ('The Shape of Water')

  • Hoyte Van Hoytema ('Dunkirk')

  • Janusz Kaminski ('The Post')

  • Roger Deakins ('Blade Runner 2049') - Deakins has been nominated thirteen times for this award and still hasn't won. Maybe this will be his year!

  • Rachel Morrison ('Mudbound') - will Morrison become the first female cinematographer nominated for an Academy Award? We'll see very soon!

Best Film Editing

This category is usually a strong indicator for the eventual winner of Best Picture. Or at the very least, the film that ultimately wins Best Picture almost always gets nominated for Best Editing.

  • Gregory Plotkin ('Get Out')

  • Jon Gregory ('Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri')

  • Lee Smith ('Dunkirk')

  • Paul Machliss ('Baby Driver')

  • Sidney Wolinsky ('The Shape of Water')