2021 Oscars Predictions: Who Will Win & Who Should Win
Last year Academy Awards was hosted the earliest it’d ever been. This year, thanks to COVID-19, this is the latest it’s ever been. And the eligibility criteria has also been modified, allowing films debuting in 2021 to also be eligible despite the ceremony intended to award the best films of 2020. Despite last year’s exciting wins for Bong Joon-ho’s magnum opus Parasite, the overall list of nominees was mostly disappointing, featuring all-male directing nominees, Best Picture nominees featuring mostly white men, and 19 out of 20 acting nominees being white. This year, however, gave us many exciting and historic nominations:
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) is the first woman of color to be nominated for Best Director.
This is the first time two women have been nominated for Best Director in the same year in the Oscars’ 93-year history—Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) and Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman). Only one woman has won Best Director before: Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker.
This is the first time two Asian directors have been nominated for Best Director in the same year: Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) and Chloé Zhao (Nomadland).
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) is just the second Asian American director nominated after M. Night Shyamalan (The Sixth Sense).
Three of the Best Picture nominees are directed by, written by, produced by, and/or starring Asians: Minari, Nomadland, and Sound of Metal.
Steven Yeun (Minari) is the first Asian American nominated for Best Actor.
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari) is the first Korean actress nominated for Best Supporting Actress.
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) is the first Muslim and Pakistani actor nominated for Best Actor.
This is the first time two Asian actors have been nominated for Best Actor in the same year: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) and Steven Yeun (Minari).
This is the first time the majority of both Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor nominees are not white: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), and Steven Yeun (Minari) make three out of the five Best Actor noms; and Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami), and Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah) make three out of the five Best Supporting Actor noms.
Chadwick Boseman became the seventh actor to receive a posthumous Oscar nomination, for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) are the first Black women to be nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling.
This year’s ceremony has a record-breaking number of nominations for women: 76 total nominations for 70 women.
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) is the fourth person, and first man, to receive acting and song nominations for the same film. Previous nominees who’ve achieved this feat include Mary J. Blige for Mudbound, Lady Gaga for A Star Is Born, and Cynthia Erivo for Harriet.
Christina Oh (producer of Minari) became the first Asian American woman to receive a nomination for Best Picture.
Judas and the Black Messiah is the first Best Picture nominee with an all-Black producing team (Shaka King, Charles D. King, and Ryan Coogler).
Viola Davis’s Best Actress nomination for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom makes her the most nominated Black actress in Oscar history.
I could be wrong but I believe this is the first time the majority of the Best Picture nominees don’t star white men.
Last year I guessed 19 out of the 24 categories correctly, impressive but not my personal best (which is 21 out of 24 in 2014). I actually would’ve done a lot worse last year had I gone with math and statistics instead of my gut, like guessing Parasite winning Best Picture despite all signs pointing to 1917 (surprising, since the Best Picture category is probably the one I perform the worst at). Now that this year The Academy reduced the number of categories down to 23, maybe my odds will improve!
Best Picture
Nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
I’ve seen six out of these eight nominated films and I must say, even though most of these are not among my favorite films of the year, it’s still a pretty strong group of nominees. But there are only two films nominated for Best Picture you should consider on your competitive Oscar ballot: Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Those are the only two films that have a chance of taking the big prize and they represent the two types of films the Oscars usually picks as Best Picture. The Trial of the Chicago 7 is typical Oscar-bait: it’s based on true events and scripted by Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network & Moneyball), an Oscar favorite. But The Trial of the Chicago 7 is not a particularly great film, and though I enjoyed it, I consider it to be this year’s Bohemian Rhapsody, unworthy of the critical and awards attention it’s been receiving. Instead, in three out of the last four years, Best Picture has gone to more interesting and ambitious films, like Parasite, The Shape of Water, and Moonlight. I’d say Nomadland falls into that boat. Yes, it’s also based on true events, but the film is less narrative-heavy and more slice-of-life. Plus it helps that Nomadland has been winning award after award, resulting in director/writer/producer Chloé Zhao becoming “the most awarded person in a single awards season in the modern era.”
Will Win: Nomadland
Could Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should Win: Promising Young Woman
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Invisible Man
Best Director
Nominees: Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), David Fincher (Mank), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
It used to be that Best Picture and Best Director went hand-in-hand, but the last decade has disrupted this “rule,” resulting in five out of the last ten ceremonies having different winners for these top two awards. This year doesn’t look to be that kind of year. It’s a safe bet that Chloé Zhao will win Best Director for her seamless work combining professional actors with non-actors portraying themselves.
Will Win: Chloé Zhao
Could Win: David Fincher
Should Win: Chloé Zhao
Dark Horse: Emerald Fennell
Should’ve Been Nominated: Steve McQueen (Small Axe) and Christopher Nolan (Tenet)
Best Actor
Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari)
The last time an actor won a posthumous Oscar was Heath Ledger for his legendary performance as The Joker in The Dark Knight. I’m confident in saying the late Chadwick Boseman will win this prize for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Though I haven’t seen the film yet, I’ve heard only universal praise for Boseman’s performance. Having only seen two films among these nominees (Sound of Metal and Minari), the other nominee that probably has the best chance of winning the award if Boseman doesn’t is Anthony Hopkins for The Father.
Will Win: Chadwick Boseman
Could Win: Anthony Hopkins
Should’ve Been Nominated: Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami), Shaun Parkes (Small Axe: Mangrove)
Best Actress
Nominees: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
This is probably the toughest category to predict! I’d say this is a three-way race between Viola Davis, Frances McDormand, and Carey Mulligan. Each of the three have won major precursor awards—Davis won the Screen Actors Guild Award, McDormand won the BAFTAs, and Mulligan won the Critics Choice Award. I think the smart choice would to bet on Davis for her transformative portrayal of a real-life person in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, but I’m gonna go with my gut and predict (hope?) that Carey Mulligan will win for her Promising Young Woman. As the only one of the three to never win an Oscar, I’m hoping Mulligan finally wins!
Will Win: Carey Mulligan
Could Win: Viola Davis
Should Win: Carey Mulligan
Dark Horse: Frances McDormand
Should’ve Been Nominated: Elisabeth Moss (The Invisible Man)
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
This is not a close race. Daniel Kaluuya will definitely win for his powerful performance as real-life Black Panther leader Fred Hampton.
Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Could Win: Paul Raci
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya
Should’ve Been Nominated: Michael Keaton (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Ewan McGregor (Birds of Prey)
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)
I think Minari breakout star (to American audiences) Youn Yuh-jung will win. She’s won several precursor awards (with memorable speeches). It’s so great that Youn will likely win an acting award considering the Oscars has a terrible track record of recognizing or even nominating Asian actors, even when their films win Best Picture (cough, cough, Parasite).
Will Win: Youn Yuh-jung
Could Win: Maria Bakalova
Should Win: Youn Yuh-jung
Dark Horse: Olivia Colman
Should’ve Been Nominated: Marsha Stephanie Blake (I’m Your Woman), Han Ye-ri (Minari)
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Sadly, it doesn’t look like Promising Young Woman will win any major awards. Out of all its nominations, Best Original Screenplay is the category it has the strongest chance of winning. Its closest competition is Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7. What works against Emerald Fennell’s daring and original screenplay for Promising Young Woman is the fact that 1) the film is polarizing and 2) Aaron Sorkin is her competition. This is Sorkin’s fourth nomination for a screenplay Oscar, having won once for The Social Network. Hear’s hoping that Promising Young Woman will pull out a win here!
Will Win: Promising Young Woman
Could Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should Win: Promising Young Woman
Dark Horse: Minari
Should’ve Been Nominated: Tenet
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, The White Tiger
I think Chloé Zhao is gonna go three-for-three with Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay for Nomadland. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a strong frontrunner in so many major categories in a long time. If only there was room to give One Night in Miami some love, especially in this category. Kemp Powers (Soul) did a great job translating his stage play onto the big screen.
Will Win: Nomadland
Could Win: The Father
Should Win: One Night in Miami
Dark Horse: One Night in Miami
Best Animated Feature Film
Nominees: Onward, Over the Moon, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Soul, Wolfwalkers
It’s safe to say Pixar will be running away with this one—despite being double-nominated with Onward and Soul, there’s no vote-splitting happening here. Since this category was introduced in 2001, Pixar has won the most times (ten!). Critical darling Soul will definitely win.
Will Win: Soul
Could Win: Wolfwalkers
Should Win: Onward
Best International Feature Film
Nominees: Another Round (Denmark), Better Days (Hong Kong), Collective (Romania), The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia), Quo VAdis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Considering the fact that Another Round is the only one here that had a strong chance of actually being nominated for Best Picture, and since it’s nominated in the Best Director category, whereas these other nominated films are not, I feel confident in saying it’s gonna win for Best International Feature Film. It’s a damn shame the Taiwanese film A Sun wasn’t nominated, though. It should have won this award!
Will Win: Another Round
Should’ve Been Nominated: A Sun (Taiwan)
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees: Collective, Crip Camp, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, Time
I’ve heard the most discussion around My Octopus Teacher and Time, so I think those are the top two candidates here. I think the award will go to Time for its (no pun intended) timeliness. The film follows a woman’s fight for the release of her husband, who is serving a 60-year prison sentence.
Will Win: Time
Could Win: My Octopus Teacher
Should’ve Been Nominated: All In: The Fight For Democracy, Hillary
Best Documentary Short Subject
Nominees: Colette, A Concerto Is a Conversation, Do Not Split, Hunger Ward, A Love Song for Latasha
Will Win: A Love Song for Latasha
Best Live Action Short Film
Nominees: Feeling Through, The Letter Room, The Present, Two Distant Strangers, White Eye
Will Win: The Letter Room
Could Win: Two Distant Strangers
Best Animated Short Subject
Nominees: Burrow, Genius Loci, If Anything Happens I Love You, Opera, Yes-People
Will Win: If Anything Happens I Love You
Best Original Score
Nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Soul
The strongest contender here is the score for Soul, from Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste. A distant second is the score for Mank, of which Reznor and Ross also both scored. It’s a nice position to be in for the two. The duo previously won for their score for The Social Network.
Will Win: Soul
Could Win: Mank
Should Win: Minari
Dark Horse: Minari
Should’ve Been Nominated: I’m Your Woman, Tenet, Wonder Woman 1984
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Fight for You” (Judas and the Black Messiah), “Hear My Voice” (The Trial of the Chicago 7), “Husavik” (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga), “Io sì (Seen)” (The Life Ahead), “Speak Now” (One Night in Miami)
The song with the best chance of winning this category is Leslie Odom Jr.’s powerful anthem “Speak Now,” from One Night in Miami. In a close second is Diane Warren’s “Io sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead.
Will Win: “Speak Now”
Could Win: “Io sì (Seen)”
Should Win: “Speak Now”
Should’ve Been Nominated: “Carried Me With You” (Onward), “Rain Song” (Minari)
Best Sound
Nominees: Greyhound, Mank, News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal
Sound used to be split into two categories: Sound Mixing and Sound Editing. And, curiously, over the last decade the two awards have gone to different films several times. But no more! This year, The Academy combined the two sound categories into one. I think it’s safe to say the film directly dealing with sound (A Sound of Metal) will win.
Will Win: Sound of Metal
Should’ve Been Nominated: Tenet
Best Production Design
Nominees: The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, News of the World, Tenet
If there’s two things the Oscars voters love, it’s period pieces and films based on Hollywood. Mank, a film about screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz and his screenplay for Citizen Kane (considered to be one of the greatest films of all time) is both! I think it has the best chance of winning. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is probably the only other film that has a chance of winning, but the safe bet is probably Mank.
Will Win: Mank
Could Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should Win: Tenet
Dark Horse: The Father
Should’ve Been Nominated: I’m Your Woman
Best Cinematography
Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
This is a two-way race between Mank and Nomadland. Though Mank recently won the American Society of Cinematographers Awards, just look at how many awards Nomadland has won for cinematography. My bet is with Nomadland.
Will Win: Nomadland
Could Win: Mank
Should Win: Nomadland
Should’ve Been Nominated: Small Axe: Lovers Rock, Minari, Tenet
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Emma., Hillbilly Elegy, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Pinocchio
Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Could Win: Mank
Dark Horse: Hillbilly Elegy
Should’ve Been Nominated: Birds of Prey, Promising Young Woman, Wonder Woman 1984
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Emma., Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Mulan, Pinnocchio
Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Could Win: Mank
Dark Horse: Emma.
Should’ve Been Nominated: Birds of Prey, I’m Your Woman, Wonder Woman 1984
Best Film Editing
Nominees: The Father, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
I’ve called The Trial of the Chicago 7 “this year’s Bohemian Rhapsody,” and category is something they may share. For some reason, Bohemian Rhapsody won this category two years ago, and it’s very likely The Trial of the Chicago 7 will too. Best Film Editing used go hand-in-hand with Best Picture, but this hasn’t been true since 2013 when Argo won both. Since I don’t think it’ll win Best Picture, I think The Trial of the Chicago 7 will win here, instead. BUT! And there’s a but, this could also be another category in which Nomadland wins, considering it’s such an awards-favorite film.
Will Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Could Win: Nomadland
Should Win: Promising Young Woman
Dark Horse: Sound of Metal
Should’ve Been Nominated: Judas and the Black Messiah, Tenet
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Love and Monsters, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The One and Only Ivan, Tenet
Tenet will win, no doubt.
Will Win: Tenet
Could Win: The Midnight Sky
Should Win: Tenet
Dark Horse: Mulan
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Invisible Man, Wonder Woman 1984
