Oscars 2019 Predictions: What Will Win, and What Should Win
The time has finally come - tomorrow is the 91st Academy Awards, ending one of the most unpredictable film races in recent memory. This is my Super Bowl. Surprisingly, the ceremony itself has been in the news for the last several months, but in a bad way. It started with the inclusion of the Best Popular Film category, which quickly went away after their was severe backlash (for good reason) against a category that felt as if it was meant to keep films like ‘Black Panther’ from the more prestigious Best Picture category. From a ratings standpoint it makes sense to include a category that would nominate more populist flicks that general audiences have actually seen. But the problem is it’s a slap in the face to the films that would’ve been nominated in the Best Popular Film category, as if to say “You’re sitting at the kids’ table, honey.” Of course, this is all purely speculation because The Academy made the bone-headed decision to announce the category without offering any details regarding what counts as a “popular” film.
Then came the Oscars host dilemma, in which Kevin Hart refused to apologize for past homophobic remarks, but then apologizing anyway while still walking away from the job. This year’s ceremony will now be host-less, the first in three decades, and will instead feature a wide array of hosts from the industry to hand out each of its awards.
After that came the Best Original Song controversy when The Academy announced only two of the five nominees will be performed at the ceremony. It’s no coincidence the two chosen - “Shallow” (A Star Is Born) and “All the Stars” (Black Panther) - were the most popular, and the only songs to top the charts. They were clearly being given special treatment. Less than a week later, The Academy announced all five nominated songs will be performed at the awards show. Unfortunately, “All the Stars” will not be performed, reportedly due to scheduling and logistic conflicts.
Most recently, The Academy announced it’d be awarding four categories during commercial breaks (Cinematography, Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Best Live Action Short Film). To be fair, they announced this change a long time ago (when they announced the Best Popular Film category), and they also said the speeches would be aired during the ceremony, though in an edited form. But the backlash didn’t start until they announced which categories would be affected this year. It’s weird that Cinematography and Editing were selected first, considering they’re the two most important aspects of filmmaking. You can have a film with no sound or actors, but you can’t have a film without picture or editing. While The Academy did say the four categories chosen each year will rotate, it’s hard to believe the Top Six categories (Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor) will ever be awarded during a commercial break. Thankfully, The Academy gave into the backlash and will now present all 24 categories during the ceremony.
I almost feel sorry for The Academy because I think they’re stuck between a rock and a hard place. Since they are currently contracted to air the ceremony on ABC, they need to increase ratings, and it kind of makes sense why they would consider a Best Popular Film category. Many blame the fact that The Academy Awards honors more arthouse films than blockbusters for the low ratings, but live television ratings have been down for years, so it’s not exactly The Academy’s fault. Another criticism is that the ceremony is too long. In their efforts to cut down on time (performing only two out of five nominated songs, limiting the songs and speeches to 90 seconds, not airing four categories), they’ve faced constant backlash. In my opinion, The Academy Awards should do whatever it takes to properly air all 24 categories, limit speeches and performances to a reasonable length (90 seconds is too short, and winners should be given at least 3 minutes from the start of their speech, not from the start of their walk), and don’t bother with a host. The only good thing about a host for this ceremony is the opening monologue. And that’s if the host is a comedian. Having no host works in all of our favors because it keeps the show running, not stopping for gags or bits, and we can just get straight to the awards. I do have a few pieces of advice for The Academy:
Do montages for all Best Picture nominees every year. I love montages.
Show actually good scenes for each of the acting nominees (I seriously don’t know why they often pick random, less stellar scenes for performances that are supposedly the best of the year).
Give an award for Best Stunt Performance
Consider motion capture performances for your best acting categories
Anyway, let’s dive into the actual awards predictions! Last year I predicted a personal record 20 out of 24 categories correctly. The year before that, I got my worst record with 14 out of 24 correct. And before that I predicted 19 out of 24. The one category I can’t ever seem to guess currently is Best Picture. I almost had it when ‘La La Land’ temporarily won. Let’s see how this year goes:
Best Picture
Nominees: Black Panther; BlacKkKlansman; Bohemian Rhapsody; The Favourite; Green Book; Roma; A Star Is Born; Vice
This has been one of the more interesting Oscar races mostly because there’s been no clear frontrunner! ‘A Star Is Born’ was the perceived front runner upon its release, but since then it’s been overshadowed at major Best Picture precursors: ‘Black Panther’ won the Actors Guild Award, ‘Green Book’ won the Producers Guild Award, ‘Roma’ won the Directors Guild Award, and ‘Can You Ever Forgive Me?’ and ‘Eighth Grade’, two films not nominated for Best Picture, won the Writers Guild Awards. One one hand, it’s exciting to have a more unpredictable race. On the other hand, this makes my un-paid job at predicting the Oscars that much harder.
Usually you can tell which films are likely to win Best Picture if they’re also nominated for Best Director and Best Film Editing. They don’t necessarily have to win all three categories, just nominated. Going with this logic it would mean only ‘BlacKkKlansman’, ‘The Favourite’, and ‘Vice’ have a real chance at winning Best Picture. I refuse to believe these are the top three contenders.
‘Black Panther’ is too big of a film to win. It’s the first superhero film nominated in this category, which is an achievement in itself. It’s the best film out of all the ones I’ve seen in this category, but I’m pretty sure it won’t win. ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ shouldn’t have even been nominated. It’s a critically-divisive film, which makes me believe it won’t win. But who knows? It won Best Picture at the Golden Globes! And even though there’s no overlap between the Golden Globe voters and Academy voters, it makes me slightly hesitant that there may be more support for the film that I can see. Please, god, don’t let ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ win. Many were shocked when Bradley Cooper wasn’t nominated for Best Director for ‘A Star Is Born’. It reminds me of when Ben Affleck won the Directors Guild Award for ‘Argo’, yet was left out of the Best Director Oscar noms. It seemed like voters over-compensated for his lack of a Director nom and gave him a Best Picture win instead. The same could happen for ‘A Star Is Born’, but then again, Cooper didn’t win the DGA.
I think the three that are in the running are ‘Roma’, ‘The Favourite’, and ‘Green Book’. The first two are tied for the most nominations (10 each), and they’re the more artistic pictures. ‘Green Book’ is the more broadly appealing fare that’s been riding on a wave of unexpected success (as well as controversy). Factoring in the preferential ballot system that The Academy implements in voting for Best Picture, my gut tells me ‘Roma’ will take the win.
Will Win: Roma
Could Win: Green Book
Should Win: Black Panther
Dark Horse: Bohemian Rhapsody
Should’ve Been Nominated: Bad Times at the El Royale; Crazy Rich Asians; The Hate U Give; Widows
Best Director
Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma); Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite); Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman); Adam McKay (Vice); Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
If your Oscar ballot doesn’t have Alfonso Cuaron winning Best Director then you’re crazy! The winner of the Directors Guild Award almost always wins the Oscar equivalent, so I have no doubt it’ll happen again. That will make it the fifth time in six consecutive years that a Mexican director has won Best Director - with Cuaron starting the trend for ‘Gravity’.
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Could Win: Spike Lee
Should Win: Any of them
Dark Horse: Pawel Pawlikowski
Should’ve Been Nominated: Ryan Coogler (Black Panther); Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born); Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk); Steve McQueen (Widows)
Best Actress
Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma); Glenn Close (The Wife); Olivia Colman (The Favourite); Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born); Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Many believe this to be a two-way race between Glenn Close and Lady Gaga, with Close being the most nominated actress without a win, and Gaga a first-time nominee. However, I feel like it’s a three-way race between those two and Olivia Colman because all three performances have been at the top of the conversation for months now. In the end, I’m fairly certain Close will finally win for her work in ‘The Wife’, building upon her memorable speech from this year’s Golden Globes.
Will Win: Glenn Close
Could Win: Olivia Colman
Should Win: Uncertain
Should’ve Been Nominated: Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians); Amanda Stenberg (The Hate U Give); Viola Davis (Widows)
Best Actor
Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice); Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born); Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate); Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody); Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
I hate to say it, but this is Rami Malek’s award to lose. Bradley Cooper was the original front runner, wonderfully portraying a complex artist’s struggles. Instead, the winner will be the caricature of a complex artist’s struggles.
Will Win: Rami Malek
Could Win: Christian Bale
Should Win: Bradley Cooper
Dark Horse: Willem Dafoe
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice); Marina de Tavira (Roma); Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk); Emma Stone (The Favourite); Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Similar to Glenn Close, Amy Adams has been nominated several times (6!) without a single win. Perhaps this year will be her year? Not so fast. Regina King and Rachel Weisz are also part of the top three contenders in this category. What’s interesting about this category is that the winner of the Screen Actors Guild award for the same category isn’t even nominated here (Emily Blunt for ‘A Quiet Place’). That leaves the category without a perceived front runner. Rachel Weisz picked up the BAFTA award, so she has a strong chance. But but gut goes with Regina King for her memorable work on ‘If Beale Street Could Talk’.
Will Win: Regina King
Could Win: Rachel Weisz
Should Win: Regina King
Dark Horse: Marina de Tavira
Should’ve Been Nominated: Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians); Cynthia Erivo (Bad Times at the El Royale)
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book); Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman); Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born); Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?); Sam Rockwell (Vice)
Like the previous two categories, this one is Mahershala Ali’s to lose. He’s been sweeping the awards for his performance in ‘Green Book’ and it’s widely expected he’ll cap it off with a win here. If there’s anyone I’d be happy winning, if not Ali, it’d be Richard E. Grant for his scene-stealing work on ‘Can You Ever Forgive Me?’ He was the one of the most pleasant surprises for me last year. He had a gracious reaction to being nominated (for the first time), and I hope this won’t be the last we’ll see of him.
Extra thought: Why is Sam Rockwell even nominated here? He was only in the film for five minutes! This reminds me of last year’s nomination for Woody Harrelson in the same category. He’s a great actor, but he definitely didn’t deserve a nomination for that role. Rockwell’s spit here could’ve gone to any of the talented actors below who gave memorable and powerful performances.
Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Could Win: Richard E. Grant
Should Win: Richard E. Grant
Should’ve Been Nominated: Russell Hornsby (The Hate U Give); Daniel Kaluuya (Widows); Brian Tyree Henry (If Beale Street Could Talk); Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: The Favourite; First Reformed; Green Book; Roma; Vice
I think I would have chosen ‘Green Book’ as the winner here had it not been for the slew of controversies that appeared recently, especially co-writer Nick Vallelonga’s racist tweets. I think it may affect the voters here. Instead, my gut believes ‘The Favourite’ will win.
Will Win: The Favourite
Could Win: Green Book
Should Win: I’ve only seen two films in this category
Dark Horse: First Reformed
Should’ve Been Nominated: Bad Times at the El Royale; Eighth Grade
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs; BlacKkKlansman; Can You Ever Forgive Me?; If Beale Street Could Talk; A Star Is Born
Having seen four out of the five films in this category, my pick would’ve been ‘If Beale Street Could Talk’. However, ‘BlacKkKlansman’ won the BAFTA and ‘Can You Ever Forgive Me?’ won the WGA. In addition to Ben Zauzmer’s statistical results, my bet is on ‘BlacKkKlansman’ winning.
Will Win: BlacKkKlansman
Could Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Dark Horse: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Should’ve Been Nominated: Crazy Rich Asians; Widows
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Incredibles 2; Isle of Dogs; Mirai; Ralph Breaks the Internet; Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
I have no doubt that ‘Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse’ will win the category. The film is a ground-breaking achievement in animation, and perhaps even the best Spider-Man film yet. Pixar usually does pretty well in this category, and the opposite is true of Sony Pictures Animations. But this feels like the year Sony will finally win in the category, and deservingly so.
Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Could Win: Incredibles 2
Should Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Dark Horse: Mirai
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Capernaum (Lebanon); Cold War (Poland); Never Look Away (German); Roma (Mexico); Shoplifters (Japan)
Considering ‘Cold War’ and ‘Roma’ are the two here that are also nominated for Best Director it makes sense that they’re the only two with a realistic chance of winning. Since ‘Roma’ is the only one with a Best Picture nomination I think it’ll surely win this category.
Will Win: Roma
Could Win: Cold War
Should Win: I’ve only seen one film here
Dark Horse: Shoplifters
Should’ve Been Nominated: Burning (South Korea)
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees: Free Solo; Hale County This Morning, This Evening; Minding the Gap; Of Fathers and Sons; RBG
I haven’t seen any of these nominated films besides ‘RBG’, so I won’t be able to give any commentary. I can say that I’ve heard great things about all five nominees, especially Bing Liu’s ‘Minding the Gap’.
Will Win: Free Solo
Could Win: RBG
Dark Horse: Minding the Gap
Should’ve Been Nominated: Fahrenheit 11/9
Best Documentary Short
Nominees: Black Sheep; End Game; Lifeboat; A Night at the Garden; Period. End of Sentence.
I haven’t seen any of these documentaries, nor have I heard much about regarding a perceived front runner. But for the sake of putting something on my ballot:
Will Win: Period. End of Sentence.
Best Live Action Short
Nominees: Detainment; Fauve; Marguerite; Mother; Skin
Like the previous category I really don’t know much about this category.
Will Win: Marguerite
Best Animated Short
Nominees: Animal Behavior; Bao; Late Afternoon; One Small Step; Weekends
Pixar isn’t as strong in this category as it is in the Animated Feature category, but I’m going with ‘Bao’ for the win. It’s the only one I’ve seen.
Will Win: Bao
Best Original Score
Nominees: Black Panther; BlacKkKlansman; If Beale Street Could Talk; Isle of Dogs; Mary Poppins Returns
I’ve been a fan of Ludwig Goransson since his work on my favorite comedy series ‘Community’, in addition to his collaboration with Childish Gambino, so I hope he wins for the iconic music he created for ‘Black Panther’. Alas, this is still a fairly strong category. I think ‘If Beale Street Could Talk’ will take the actual win, and I wouldn’t be upset. The film has one of my favorite scores from 2018.
Will Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Could Win: BlacKkKlansman
Should Win: Black Panther
Should’ve Been Nominated: Crazy Rich Asians; First Man
Best Original Song
Nominees: “All the Stars” (Black Panther); “I’ll Fight” (RGB); “The Place Where Lost Things Go” (Mary Poppins Returns); “Shallow” (A Star Is Born); “When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
“Shallow” has been the front runner since the first trailer for ‘A Star Is Born’ and, surprisingly, I don’t believe the hype has peaked. It will win, but if it doesn’t, I can see “All the Stars” taking the prize. Both are worthy of this win!
Will Win: “Shallow”
Could Win: “All the Stars”
Should Win: “Shallow”
Best Sound Editing
Nominees: Black Panther; Bohemian Rhapsody; First Man; A Quiet Place; Roma
I keep on going back and forth between ‘First Man’ and ‘A Quiet Place’ winning this category, where sound is important to the success of each film, though for different reasons. In ‘First Man’, sound is used to great effect in reminding us of the dangers associated with man’s first trip to the moon. In ‘A Quiet Place’, the lack of sound is intentional and supports the premise of the film (creatures that kill you if you make a sound). It feels like a toss-up, but I’ll go with ‘A Quiet Place’ for the win.
Will Win: A Quiet Place
Could Win: First Man
Should Win: A Quiet Place or First Man
Dark Horse: Bohemian Rhapsody (there it goes again)
Best Sound Mixing
Nominees: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody; First Man; Roma; A Star Is Born
Statistically, it looks like ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ is the favorite to win here. Sighs. I’d much rather ‘A Star Is Born’ win, not only because it’s a better film, but it features actual live singing. At this rate it looks like ‘A Star Is Born’ will go home with only one win during the ceremony (for Best Original Song). It’s the curse of being a great film that’s a jack of all trades - with great directing, acting, cinematography, music - but master of none.
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Could Win: A Star Is Born
Should Win: A Star Is Born
Dark Horse: First Man
Should’ve Been Nominated: Bad Times at the El Royale
Best Production Design
Nominees: Black Panther; The Favourite; First Man; Mary Poppins Returns; Roma
This is a two-way race between a period film and a futuristic one. ‘The Favourite’ and ‘Black Panther’ both won the Art Directors Guild for their respective categories (Period Film and Fantasy). Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart totally deserves to win this category for their amazing work on ‘Black Panther’. The film was a sight to behold, not because of its special effects but because of the world of Wakanda the artists created from the ground up. When I originally wrote this section I believed ‘The Favourite’ would win because it’s the more traditionally prestigious picture. However, right before publishing I decided to change my vote and go with ‘Black Panther’, hoping The Academy makes the right choice!
Will Win: Black Panther
Could win: The Favourite
Should Win: Black Panther
Dark Horse: Roma
Should’ve Been Nominated: Bad Times at the El Royale; Crazy Rich Asians
Best Cinematography
Nominees: Cold War; The Favourite; Never Look Away; Roma; A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron handling both the directing and cinematography duties on ‘Roma’ has been in the discussion for a while now, and that makes me believe he has the strongest chance of winning the category. I think the biggest thread against it is ‘Cold War’, another foreign-language black-and-white picture. ‘Cold War’ even received the award from the American Society of Cinematographers.
Will Win: Roma
Could Win: Cold War
Should Win: A Star Is Born
Dark Horse: The Favourite
Should’ve Been Nominated: Black Panther; Widows
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Border; Mary Queen of Scots; Vice
Making Christian Bale look like former Vice President Dick Cheney is no small feat. It’s going to win.
Will Win: Vice
Could Win: Mary Queen of Scots
Should Win: Vice
Dark Horse: Border
Best Costume Design
Nominees: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs; Black Panther; The Favourite; Mary Poppins Returns; Mary Queen of Scots
Like Production Design, this is a two-way race between the period piece ‘The Favourite’ and sci-fi feature ‘Black Panther’. We’ve seen enough period films win this category, and Ruth E. Carter’s spectacular costume designs in ‘Black Panther’ have been the talk of the town for over a year now. Sandy Powell has won this category three times, whereas Ruth E. Carter’s been nominated three times without a win. There’s a chance Powell’s two nominations for ‘The Favourite’ and ‘Mary Queen of Scots’ may split her votes. I feel like ‘The Favourite’ is the film most likely to win, but I’m going to take a chance and hope The Academy makes the exciting choice and gives ‘Black Panther’ the win.
Will Win: Black Panther
Could Win: The Favourite
Should Win: Black Panther
Dark Horse: Mary Queen of Scots
Should’ve Been Nominated: Bad Times at the El Royale; Crazy Rich Asians
Best Film Editing
Nominees: BlacKkKlansman; Bohemian Rhapsody; The Favourite; Green Book; Vice
This is a three-way race between ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’, ‘The Favourite’, and ‘Vice’. The first two were honored at the American Cinema Editors Awards, while ‘Vice’ won the BAFTA. I feel like ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ will win because it always seems to surprise us at every corner this year, but this is another category where I’m going against my better judgement to hope The Academy goes a different route. In this case, I’m thinking ‘Vice’ will win.
Will Win: Vice
Could Win: Bohemian Rhapsody or The Favourite
Should Win: Not sure
Dark Horse: Green Book
Should’ve Been Nominated: Bad Times at the El Royale; Black Panther; A Star Is Born; Widows
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Avengers: Infinity War; Christopher Robin; First Man; Ready Player One; Solo: A Star Wars Story
A Marvel Cinematic Universe film has never won this category, but that is likely to change this year with ‘Avengers: Infinity War’. The only thing that makes me hesitant about this choice is The Academy normally awards smaller, more prestigious fare for this category (think ‘Blade Runner 2049’, ‘Ex Machina’, ‘Interstellar’). So there’s a chance ‘First Man’ can pull an upset here.
Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War
Could Win: First Man
Should Win: Avengers: Infinity War
Dark Horse: Ready Player One
Should’ve Been Nominated: Annihilation; Aquaman
