2022 Oscars Predictions: Who Will and Who SHOULD Win
The 94th Academy Awards is this Sunday! So, here’s my annual Oscars predictions post. If you’re thinking about entering my Outguess Kent Contest, this post will be helpful to you as a sort of cheat sheet, especially if you’re unfamiliar with the politics of the Oscars race. Please note: some of my predictions here are different from my original predictions listed in the contest. This is because of some late developments (wins) at some major awards after I published my contest blog post. However, my predictions listed below WILL NOT be considered for my Outguess Kent Contest, only my original predictions will.
Best Picture
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
It’s going to be really interesting to see which films wins Best Picture Sunday night. For the longest time, the clear frontrunner has been Netflix’s The Power of the Dog. Not only does the film lead the night with the most nominations (12), but it’s also won some of the most important precursor awards that usually lead to a BP win, including the BAFTAs, Critics Choice Awards, Directors Guild Awards, and, to a lesser extent, the Golden Globes. The main thing that would work against TPOTD is that it’s from Netflix, and despite having Best Picture contenders in the past, Netflix has never been able to win the big prize, likely due to anti-streaming bias from many voting members. But this may not be an issue this year because it’s biggest competitor also hails from a streaming service! For awhile, it seemed like TPOTD had it in the bag. But recently, Apple TV Plus’s little seen film, CODA, has been taking in some surprising wins, including top prizes at the Producers Guild Awards and Screen Actors Guild Awards. I think the Best Picture category’s ranked-choice voting system (the only category to use it) will benefit CODA the most since it’s the crowd-pleasing picture that probably has more broad appeal than TPOTD, but I’m going to stick with my gut and say Netflix will finally pull off a win. The usually-predictable Oscars BP race now appears to be a nail-biter, and no matter which of these two films wins, it’ll be the first film from a streaming service to win Best Picture, and the second film in a row to win Best Picture that’s directed by a woman!
Having seen eight of the ten nominees, I’d be fine with any film winning EXCEPT West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, and Don’t Look Up. Please, god, don’t let any of these win. And if there’s a miracle, Drive My Car (or even Dune) would be an exciting win.
Will Win: The Power of the Dog
Could Win: CODA
Should Win: Drive My Car
Should’ve Been Nominated: Mass, tick, tick… BOOM!
Best Director
Nominees:
Kenneth Branagh — Belfast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi — Drive My Car
Paul Thomas Anderson — Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion — The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg — West Side Story
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) recently won the top prize at the Director’s Guild Awards, so it’s safe to say she’ll take the directing prize at the Oscars, too. The DGAs and Oscars usually go hand-in-hand in this category, though not always (most recently, in 2019 when the DGAs gave the award to Sam Mendes for 1917, while the Oscars gave the award to Bong Joon-ho for Parasite). Campion is the only woman to be nominated for Best Director twice, an appalling statistic. And if she wins, it’ll be the first time a woman has won this award two years in a row, another appalling statistic. Also, it’d be only the third time a woman has won Best Director. Phew!
Will Win: Jane Campion
Could Win: Steven Spielberg
Should Win: Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Should’ve Been Nominated: Denis Villeneuve (Dune), Jon M. Chu (In the Heights), James Gunn (The Suicide Squad)
Best Actor
Nominees:
Javier Bardem — Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch — The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield — tick, tick… BOOM!
Will Smith — King Richard
Denzel Washington — The Tragedy of Macbeth
I think Will Smith will win his first Oscar this Sunday for his lead performance in King Richard. His strongest competitor is Benedict Cumberbatch, since Cumberbatch’s film is the frontrunner for Best Picture, after all. But with Smith having won the BAFTA, SGA, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice Awards, it seems like this is his award to lose.
Will Win: Will Smith
Could Win: Benedict Cumberbatch
Should Win: Andrew Garfield
Should’ve Been Nominated: Nicolas Cage (Pig), Jason Isaacs (Mass), Hidetoshi Nishijima (Drive My Car)
Best Actress
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain — The Eyes of Tammy Faye
OIivia Colman — The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz — Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman — Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart — Spencer
This one is a big harder to predict as I’ve only seen two of these films, and no one actress has completely swept precursor awards. None of these actresses were nominated at the BAFTAs. Jessica Chastain won the SAG and Critics Choice Awards, and Nicole Kidman won the Golden Globes. This isn’t much to work off of, but my best bet is on Chastain. However, I’ve been seeing a growing chorus for Penelope Cruz online lately, so there’s a good chance she may pull off a surprise win Sunday night!
Will Win: Jessica Chastain
Could Win: Penelope Cruz
Should Win: Kristen Stewart
Dark Horse: Kristen Stewart
Should’ve Been Nominated: Jodie Comer (The Last Duel), Martha Plimpton (Mass), Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World)
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Ciaran Hinds — Belfast
Troy Kotsur — CODA
Jesse Plemons — The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons — Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee — The Power of the Dog
This is a two-way race between Troy Kotsur (CODA) and Kodi Smit-McPhee, and the likely winner is Kotsur. He’s already won at at the SAGs, BAFTAs, and Critics Choice Awards, while Smit-McPhee won at the Golden Globes. It also might not help that Smit-Mcphee’s co-star Jesse Plemons is also nominated in this category, risking a vote split.
Will Win: Troy Kotsur
Could Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee
Should Win: Troy Kotsur
Dark Horse: Ciaran Hinds
Should’ve Been Nominated: Jon Bernthal (King Richard), Colman Domingo (Zola), Andrew Garfield (Spider-Man: No Way Home), Tony Leung (Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings)
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Jessie Buckley — The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose — West Side Story
Judi Dench — Belfast
Kirsten Dunst — The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis — King Richard
60 years after Rita Moreno won this award for her portrayal of Anita in West Side Story, Ariana DeBose appears likely to repeat this feat. DeBose won at the SAGs, BAFTAs, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes.
Will Win: Ariana DeBose
Could Win: Aunjanue Ellis
Should Win: Aunjanue Ellis
Dark Horse: Kirsten Dunst
Should’ve Been Nominated: Rebecca Ferguson (Dune), Park Yoo-rim (Drive My Car), Medina Senghore (Those Who Wish Me Dead)
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
This one can go any way, though I think it’s a three-way race between Belfast, Don’t Look Up, and Licorice Pizza. Belfast won at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, but Licorice Pizza won the BAFTA, while Don’t Look Up won the Writers Guild Awards.
Will Win: Don’t Look Up
Could Win: Licorice Pizza
Should Win: The Worst Person in the World
Dark Horse: Belfast
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Falls, Mass, Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy, Malignant
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
Like Best Picture, this seemed like The Power of the Dog’s award to lose, but it doesn’t appear so clear-cut anymore. The film won at the Critics Choice Awards, but CODA won the BAFTA and WGAs. And I don’t think Drive My Car is completely out of the running just yet. Despite only being nominated in four categories, Drive My Car is nominated in four BIG categories: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best International Feature Film. Clearly, there’s strong fanbase for the Japanese film.
Will Win: The Power of the Dog
Could Win: CODA
Should Win: Drive My Car
Dark Horse: Drive My Car
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Suicide Squad
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Disney and Pixar run this category with a combined 14 wins and 29 nominations. I do think Disney’s Encanto is the frontrunner here, but I wouldn’t count out Neon’s Flee or Netflix/Sony’s The Mitchells vs. The Machines just yet. In my opinion, Encanto isn’t as strong as many previous Disney films. And Sony’s win a few years ago for Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse shows they can hold up their own against Disney. Similarly, The Mitchells vs. The Machines offers refreshing and ambitious animation alongside universal critical acclaim. The same with Flee, another critical darling, but which tackles a serious subject matter and true story of a refugee from Afghanistan. As of this writing, Flee has won 42 major awards, Encnato won 23, and The Mitchells vs. The Machines 19.
Will Win: Flee
Could Win: Encanto
Should Win: The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Dark Horse: The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Best International Feature Film
Nominees:
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
This is a three-way race between Drive My Car, Flee, and The Worst Person in the World, since these three are the only ones also nominated in other major categories. I think it’ll go to Drive My Car.
Will Win: Drive My Car
Could Win: The Worst Person in the World
Should Win: Drive My Car
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Writing with Fire
I didn’t watch a lot of documentaries last year, and I haven’t seen any of the ones nominated. But I loved The Rescue (streaming on Disney Plus), and it was one of my favorite films of the year, so I’m surprised it wasn’t nominated! Anyway, I think this is a two-way race between Flee and Summer of Soul.
Will Win: Flee
Could Win: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Dark Horse: Attica
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Rescue
Best Documentary Short Subject
Nominees:
Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
Will Win: The Queen of Basketball
Could Win: Audible
Best Live Action Short Film
Nominees:
Ala Kachuu
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
Will Win: The Long Goodbye
Could Win: The Dress
Best Animated Short Subject
Nominees:
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
BoxBallet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper
Will Win: Robin Robin
Could Win: The Windshield Wiper
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
This is a two-way race between Dune and The Power of the Dog. While I do think Dune is the frontrunner because it’s won some of the biggest precursors, including the BAFTAs, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes, when it did lose in other awards circles, it was usually to The Power of the Dog. Hans Zimmer (Dune) has been nominated 12 times in this category, but only won once—in 1995 for The Lion King. Every time I thought he had the best score of the year, like with Inception or Interstellar, he lost. I feel like that will likely happen again, this time to the beloved The Power of the Dog (scored by Johnny Greenwood of Radiohead).
Will Win: The Power of the Dog
Could Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Should’ve Been Nominated: Drive My Car, Eternals, No Time to Die, Raya and the Last Dragon, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
This is likely a two-way race between “Dos Oruguitas” and “No Time to Die.” I totally thought this would be a race between Encanto and Beyonce (“Be Alive”), but Billie Eilish’s “No Time to Die” has been racking up awards after awards, so I do think that’s the song to beat. But my gut wants to believe The Academy will make the right decision and award this to “Dos Oruguitas.”
Will Win: “Dos Oruguitas”
Could Win: “No Time to Die”
Should Win: “Dos Oruguitas”
Dark Horse: “Be Alive”
Should’ve Been Nominated: “Beyond the Shore” (CODA), “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” (Encanto)
Best Sound
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: West Side Story
Should Win: Dune
Should’ve Been Nominated: In the Heights, Malignant, Mass, tick, tick… BOOM!
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: West Side Story
Should Win: Dune
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Green Knight, In the Heights
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
All five of these nominees are very strong contenders and deserve the award, but I think this is a two-way race between The Power of the Dog and Dune. I want to believe Dune will win, but my gut tells me The Power of the Dog will pull through.
Will Win: The Power of the Dog
Could Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Dark Horse: West Side Story
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Green Knight, In the Heights, No Time to Die
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Will Win: Cruella
Could Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Should Win: Cruella
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Green Knight, Malignant, Spencer
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Will Win: Cruella
Could Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Dark Horse: West Side Story
Should’ve Been Nominated: Eternals, The Green Knight, Spencer
Best Film Editing
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick… BOOM!
This is a tough one. I’d like to believe this is a two-way race between Dune and The Power of the Dog, but The Academy has awarded the film with the MOST, not BEST, editing in the past (Bohemian Rhapsody), which means it could very well go to Don’t Look Up. But I’m hoping they make the right decision and give the award to Dune.
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Win: tick, tick… BOOM!
Dark Horse: Don’t Look Up
Should’ve Been Nominated: Drive My Car, The Rescue
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
The biggest franchise in the world (the MCU) is always present in this category, but they still haven’t notched a win, so I doubt this year will be any different. I think Dune has this in the bag.
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: No Time to Die
Should Win: Dune
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Green Knight, Malignant
