2023 Oscars Predictions: Who Will Win and Who Should Win

The 95th Academy Awards is this Sunday! As an annual tradition, I try to predict the winner of each category. Last year I only correctly predicted 13 out of the 24 Oscars categories—a new personal worst. (My personal best is 21 out of 24.) I’m feeling a bit more confident in my selections this year. And I hope the ones I’m predicting do come true because it would make for some truly wonderful and exciting moments, despite the awards still lacking in diversity, such as the lack of women or people of color in many of the major categories.

Best Picture

Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front

2. Avatar: The Way of Water

3. The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Elvis

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once

6. The Fabelmans

7. Tár

8. Top Gun: Maverick

9. Triangle of Sadness

10. Women Talking

This is the most populist slate of Best Picture nominees in Oscars history, and it’s thanks to The Academy’s permanent 10-nominee ruling for this category. Massive blockbusters like Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water sit alongside low-budget adult dramas like Women Talking and Tár, and Oscar bait like Elvis and All Quiet on the Western Front. But the frontrunner is the most interesting part about this category because, in any other year, it would have been an unorthodox choice, a film so unlike the ones the Academy Awards usually honors, that the fact it has the strongest chance of winning Best Picture makes it so exciting. And that film is the breakout multiversal hit Everything Everywhere All at Once. This film seems unstoppable, winning award after award. According to Wikipedia, it’s been nominated and won more awards than past Best Picture winners and awards darlings like Parasite, The Power of the Dog, Nomadland, and Titanic. It’s the rare frontrunner that’s also the underdog due to the fact that it’s so different from other Best Picture winners yet it’s universally beloved (similar to Best Picture winners Parasite and, to a lesser extent, The Shape of Water). I may not have liked this film as much as everyone else seemed to have, but I’m actually rooting for Everything Everywhere All at Once!

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Tár
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Dark Horse: The Fabelmans
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Batman; Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery; RRR

Best Director

Nominees:

1. Martin McDonagh — The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert — Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Steven Spielberg — The Fabelmans

4. Todd Field — Tár

5. Ruben Östlund — Triangle of Sadness

Best Picture and Best Director used to go hand-in-hand, but the last decade or so that statistic has actually been rarer, occurring only six times in the last 12 years. This year I think that original statistic will remain, with the directors of Everything Everywhere All at Once, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, will win. And what an exciting win it will be! If there’s an upset, I think it would be with a Todd Field win (a big deal since Tár is his first film in 15 years).

Will Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
Could Win: Todd Field
Should Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
Dark Horse: Steven Spielberg
Should’ve Been Nominated: Ryan Coogler (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Rian Johnson (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick), Jordan Peele (Nope), S. S. Rajamouli (RRR)

Best Actor

Nominees:

1. Austin Butler — Elvis

2. Colin Farrell — The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Brendan Fraser — The Whale

4. Paul Mescal — Aftersun

5. Bill Nighy — Living

Seven of the last 12 Best Actor winners won playing real people, and I believe that trend will continue with Austin Butler’s Elvis. If anyone wins over him it would likely be Brendan Fraser or Colin Farrell.

Will Win: Austin Butler
Could Win: Brendan Fraser
Should Win: Colin Farrell
Dark Horse: Paul Mescal
Should’ve Been Nominated: Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Park Hae-il (Decision to Leave)

Best Actress

Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett — Tár

2. Ana de Armas — Blonde

3. Andrea Riseborough — To Leslie

4. Michelle Williams — The Fabelmans

5. Michelle Yeoh — Everything Everywhere All at Once

I’m really anxious about this category and I honestly don’t think the people online are mentally prepared for the chance that Michelle Yeoh, the narrative favorite to win Best Actress, might actually lose to two-time Academy Award winner Cate Blanchett (the odds are in Blanchett’s favor). Admittedly, Blanchett’s performance in Tár is outstanding, and she’d be more than deserving of another win. But I’m hoping Michelle Yeoh wins for her nuanced performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once, and she’s long overdue for this type of recognition (Yeoh should’ve won an Oscar for her performance in Crazy Rich Asians and I will never stop saying that). Also, only one woman of color has ever won this category—Halle Berry—and it was all the way back in 2001!

Will Win: Michelle Yeoh
Could Win: Cate Blanchett
Should Win: Cate Blanchett
Dark Horse: Michelle Williams
Should’ve Been Nominated: Viola Davis (The Woman King), Tang Wei (Decision to Leave), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Letitia Wright (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

1. Brandan Gleeson — The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Brian Tyree Henry — Causeway

3. Judd Hirsch — The Fabelmans

4. Barry Keoghan — The Banshees of Inisherin

5. Ke Huy Quan — Everything Everywhere All at Once

I’m 99% sure Ke Huy Quan will win (he’s been sweeping this category in nearly every other awarding body). And what a wonderful win it would be, as Quan was forced to retire from acting as an early age due to a lack of opportunity for Asian American actors. Everything Everywhere All at Once was the first role he landed after coming back from retirement (he was inspired by the success of Crazy Rich Asians), his first in 20 years. But if anyone beats him I’d bet my money on Barry Keoghan and his heartbreaking performance in The Banshees of Inisherin.

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan
Could Win: Barry Keoghan
Should Win: Barry Keoghan
Dark Horse: Judd Hirsch
Should’ve Been Nominated: Colin Farrell (The Batman), Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Edward Norton (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Chris Pine (Don’t Worry Darling)

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

1. Angela Bassett — Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

2. Hong Chau — The Whale

3. Kerry Condon — The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Jamie Lee Curtis — Everything Everywhere All at Once

5. Stephanie Hsu — Everything Everywhere All at Once

Like the Best Actress category, this is another one in which the internet is not prepared for a likely upset. Angela Bassett enters as the favorite (and, in my opinion, she deserves the win for her showstopping performance as Queen Ramonda in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). However, if Everything Everywhere All at Once performs well that night, it could uplift Jamie Lee Curtis, who surprisingly won the SAG last week.

Will Win: Angela Bassett
Could Win: Jamie Lee Curtis
Should Win: Angela Bassett
Dark Horse: Kerry Condon
Should’ve Been Nominated: Danai Gurira (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Lashana Lynch (The Woman King), Samantha Morton (She Said), Rachel Sennott (Bodies Bodies Bodies), Sigourney Weaver (Avatar: The Way of Water)

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees:

1. The Banshees of Inisherin — Martin McDonagh

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once — Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

3. The Fabelmans — Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner

4. Tár — Todd Field

5. Triangle of Sadness — Ruben Östlund

I’m expecting an Everything Everywhere All at Once sweep, so my bet is on that film. But if anyone were to beat it, it’d be Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin. McDonagh is no stranger to this category, having been twice nominated for In Bruges and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. He hasn’t won yet, so perhaps third time’s the charm.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win: Tár
Dark Horse: The Fabelmans
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Falls (Chung Mong-hong and Chang Yao-sheng); Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson) (Due to Academy rules, Glass Onion is considered an adapted screenplay because it’s a sequel that uses characters from a previous film, but I consider it an original screenplay!)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front

2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

3. Living

4. Top Gun: Maverick

5. Women Talking

Women Talking and All Quiet on the Western Front are the frontrunners here. I’m going with Women Talking for the win since they won the WGA.

Will Win: Women Talking
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Dark Horse: Living

Best Animated Feature

This is a great list of nominees even though I only really like one of’em (Puss in Boots: The Last Wish) because Disney isn’t the heavy favorite. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is a beautiful adaptation of the story we all know, Turning Red is a unique film from an animation giant (Pixar), and I understand the love for Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (it just didn’t work for me at all). And The Sea Beast is the only one I haven’t seen. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio has an 8-in-9 chance of winning, so my bet is on that, but if there’s an upset I think it would be fan favorite Turning Red.

Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

4. The Sea Beast

5. Turning Red

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Could Win: Turning Red
Should Win: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Dark Horse: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Should’ve Been Nominated: Chip ‘n Dale: Rescue Rangers

Best International Feature

Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

2. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)

3. Close (Belgium)

4. EO (Poland)

5. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

As the only film in this category also nominated for Best Picture, it’s safe to say All Quiet on the Western Front will win Best International Feature.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Win: Argentina, 1985
Should’ve Been Nominated: Decision to Leave (South Korea), The Falls (Taiwan), RRR (India)

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees:

1. All That Breathes

2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

3. Fire of Love

4. A House Made of Splinters

5. Navalny

This is always one of the categories I’m not as knowledgable about. I’m going with a Navalny win since it’s a timely documentary about Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

Will Win: Navalny
Should’ve Been Nominated: Accepted; Katrina Babies

Best Documentary Short Subject

Nominees:

1. The Elephant Whisperers

2. Haulout

3. How Do You Measure a Year?

4. The Martha Mitchell Effect

5. Stranger at the Gate

The shorts categories are my blind spots, as they’re the nominees I almost always fail to have seen. Every film site I’ve checked predict a different winner in this category, so who knows what will win. Judging by the film’s interesting premise, and activist Malala Yousafzai’s attaching herself as an executive producer, I’m going to go with Stranger at the Gate for the win.

Will Win: Stranger at the Gate

Best Live Action Short Film

Nominees:

1. An Irish Goodbye

2. Ivalu

3. Le pupille

4. Night Ride

5. The Red Suitcase

Based on what I’ve read, the top two contenders for Best Live Action Short Film are An Irish Goodbye and Le pupille. I’m going with the former.

Will Win: An Irish Goodbye
Could Win: Le pupille

Best Animated Short Subject

Nominees:

1. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

2. The Flying Sailor

3. Ice Merchants

4. My Year of Dicks

5. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Again, the shorts categories are a shot in the dark for me. Based on what everyone else is predicting, I’m thinking The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse will win.

Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Could Win: My Year of Dicks

Best Original Score

Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front — Volker Bertelmann

2. Babylon — Justin Hurwitz

3. The Banshees of Inisherin — Carter Burwell

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once — Son Lux

5. The Fabelmans — John Williams

Statistically, Everything Everywhere All at Once is the least likely to win this category, but I’m just going with my gut and predicting it’ll win in the end (alongside a sweep). If Justin Hurwitz’s Babylon wins, I’ll be happy because it would somewhat make up for the lack of a nomination (and win) for his outstanding score for First Man.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Babylon
Dark Horse: The Fabelmans
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Batman (Michael Giacchino); Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ludwig Göransson); Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Nathan Johnson); Nope (Michael Abels), Turning Red (Ludwig Göransson)

Best Original Song

Nominees:

1. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman — Music and lyrics by Diane Warren

2. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick — Music and lyrics by Lady Gaga and BloodPop

3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, and Ludwig Göransson; Lyrics by Tems and Ryan Coogler

4. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR — Music by M. M. Keeravani; Lyrics by Chandrabose

5. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once — Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne, and Mitski; Lyrics by Ryan Lott and David Byrne

“Naatu Naatu,” the first song from an Indian film to be nominated in this category, is the crowd-pleasing fan favorite (as it should be!) and I think it’ll win.

Will Win: “Naatu Naatu”
Could Win: “Lift Me Up”
Should Win: “Naatu Naatu”
Dark Horse: “This Is a Life”
Should’ve Been Nominated: “I Ain’t Worried” from Top Gun: Maverick; “Love of My Life,” “Marry Me,” and “On My Way (Marry Me)” from Marry Me; “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red

Best Sound

Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front — Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel, and Stefan Korte

2. Avatar: The Way of Water — Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, and Michael Hedges

3. The Batman — Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, and Andy Nelson

4. Elvis — David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson, and Michael Keller

5. Top Gun: Maverick — Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor

The winner of this category typically goes to action films (like Dune, Ford v Ferrari, 1917, and Dunkirk), which means the Top Gun: Maverick and All Quiet on the Western Front are the likeliest winners. With Top Gun: Maverick being the blockbuster hit, the sequel to a beloved classic, I’m predicting it’ll win. But I wouldn’t totally count out Elvis, as it’s this year’s Bohemian Rhapsody (in the fact they’re both musical biopics and both films are overrated). If Bohemian Rhapsody could beat out films with excellent sound design and mixing like Black Panther, First Man, Roma, A Star Is Born, and A Quiet Place, then Elvis probably has a good shot of winning too.

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: The Batman
Dark Horse: Elvis
Should’ve Been Nominated: Don’t Worry Darling; Nope

Best Production Design

Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front — Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper

2. Avatar: The Way of Water — Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole

3. Babylon — Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino

4. Elvis — Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn

5. The Fabelmans — Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O'Hara

The Academy voters love to award this category to Hollywood and period pieces (and period-adjacent), like Mank, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Shape of Water, La La Land, and The Great Gatsby, so I’d say Babylon and Elvis are the frontrunners, with Babylon edging out Elvis.

Will Win: Babylon
Could Win: Elvis
Should’ve Been Nominated: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Decision to Leave; Do Revenge; Nope

Best Cinematography

Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front — James Friend

2. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths — Darius Khondji

3. Elvis — Mandy Walker

4. Empire of Light — Roger Deakins

5. Tár — Florian Hoffmeister

While the odds are in favor of All Quiet on the Western Front winning Best Cinematography, I do think Elvis’s wide appeal and box office success (All Quiet on the Western Front was streaming only on Netflix) works in its favor, resulting in an upset.

Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: Tár
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Batman (Greig Fraser); Decision to Leave (Kim Ji-yong); The Fabelmans (Janusz Kamiński); Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Steve Yedlin); Nope (Hoyte van Hoytema); Top Gun: Maverick (Claudio Miranda)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front — Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová

2. The Batman — Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Mike Fontaine

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Camille Friend and Joel Harlow

4. Elvis — Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, and Aldo Signoretti

5. The Whale — Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, and Anne Marie Bradley

Like Best Actor, this is a two-way race between Elvis and The Whale. Either has a strong chance of winning, but I’m going with Elvis since it’s at least nominated for Best Picture, whereas the latter is not.

Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: The Whale
Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should’ve Been Nominated: Barbarian

Best Costume Design

Nominees:

1. Babylon — Mary Zophres

2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Ruth Carter

3. Elvis — Catherine Martin

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once — Shirley Kurata

5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris — Jenny Beavan

I think Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is the best nominee in this category but, unfortunately, I think Elvis will win because voters may not want to reward Black Panther again.

Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Dark Horse: Babylon
Should’ve Been Nominated: The Batman; Black Adam; Do Revenge; Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Film Editing

Nominees:

1. The Banshees of Inisherin — Mikkel E. G. Nielsen

2. Elvis — Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once — Paul Rogers

4. Tár — Monika Willi

5. Top Gun: Maverick — Eddie Hamilton

Lately, this category has tended to award science fiction, fantasy, and action films (Dune, Ford v Ferrari, Dunkirk, Hacksaw Ridge, Mad Max: Fury Road, Gravity), or musical or sound-heavy films (Sound of Metal, Bohemian Rhapsody, Whiplash), which would take The Banshees of Inisherin and Tár out of the running. With Everything Everywhere all at Once being the universal favorite to sweep the night, I’m predicting a win for it here.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dark Horse: Elvis
Should’ve Been Nominated: Barbarian; The Batman; Decision to Leave; Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery; Nope

Best Visual Effects

Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front — Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank, and Kamil Jafar

2. Avatar: The Way of Water — Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett

3. The Batman — Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, and Dominic Tuohy

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White, and Dan Sudick

5. Top Gun: Maverick — Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Scott R. Fisher

It’s practically a guarantee that Avatar: The Way of Water will win Best Visual Effects, the same category its predecessor won over 10 years ago.

Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Could Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Dark Horse: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should’ve Been Nominated: Everything Everywhere All at Once; Decision to Leave; Jurassic World Dominion; Nope