2024 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win and Who Should Win

The 96th Academy Awards is finally here! I made my initial predictions of winners back in January, but a lot has happened since then, specifically the outcome of several major film awards. Some of my predictions here have changed since January, but my new predictions below will not count towards the Outguess Kent Contest. (The deadline to enter the contest is Sunday, March 10th, at 7 PM ET!)

Best Picture

Nominees:

1. American Fiction

2. Anatomy of a Fall

3. Barbie

4. The Holdovers

5. Killers of the Flower Moon

6. Maestro

7. Oppenheimer

8. Past Lives

9. Poor Things

10. The Zone of Interest

There’s usually a strong two-way race for Best Picture (Everything Everywhere All at Once vs. Tar, Parasite vs. 1917, A Star Is Born vs. Roma), but this is the first year I can remember where there’s such a clear frontrunner that I can’t see any other film winning. This is Oppenheimer’s award to lose.

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Oppenheimer

Should’ve Been Nominated: Monster, Origin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Director

Nominees:

1. Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

2. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)

3. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)

5. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

This is also a category that can feel like a two or three-way race, but Christopher Nolan has been sweeping so many awards it finally feels like his year to win Best Director. I can’t see anyone else taking this award!

Will Win: Christopher Nolan

Best Actor

Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)

2. Colman Domingo (Rustin)

3. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)

4. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

5. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Cillian Murphy was always the favorite since Oppenheimer’s release, but after seeing The Holdovers and the surprise attention the little film received, I predicted Paul Giamatti pulling an upset. However, since then, I’ve switched back to thinking Murphy will ultimately win after Oppenheimer’s dominance this awards season and Murphy taking major awards like BAFTA and SAG. Bradley Cooper and Jeffrey Wright shouldn’t have been nominated in my opinion. I haven’t seen Rustin yet.

Will Win: Cillian Murphy

Could Win: Paul Giamatti

Should Win: Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti

Dark Horse: Bradley Cooper

Should’ve Been Nominated: Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Ezra Miller (The Flash), Soya Kurokaw (Monster), Anthony Hopkins (One Life), Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers), Lamar Johnson (Brother)

Best Actress

Nominees:

1. Annette Bening (Nyad)

2. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

3. Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall)

4. Carey Mulligan (Maestro)

5. Emma Stone (Poor Things)

I originally predicted, and still believe, Lily Gladstone will win and become the first Native American actor to win this award. However, I’m still afraid Emma Stone may win after a series of competitive wins this awards season. Hot take: I don’t think Gladstone should even be in this category because her character felt more like a supporting role in my opinion. But I also don’t think Stone should’ve been nominated (she was fine in the movie). Sandra Hüller deserves to win for her role as a widower accused of murdering her husband, embedding the character with empathy but also enough doubt for us, as the audience, to be unsure of her guilt or innocence. I love Carey Mulligan but don’t think she should have been nominated, and I haven’t seen Nyad yet.

Will Win: Lily Gladstone

Could Win: Emma Stone

Should Win: Sandra Hüller

Dark Horse: Sandra Hüller

Should’ve Been Nominated: Natalie Portman (May December), Abby Ryder Fortson (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.), Storm Reid (Missing), Sakura Ando (Monster), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin), Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple)

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

1. Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)

2. Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)

3. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)

4. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

5. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Robert Downey Jr. is going to finally win an Oscar, no doubt about it. Sterling K. Brown and Mark Ruffalo, both great actors, did not deserve to be nominated.

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr.

Should Win: Robert Downey Jr.

Should’ve Been Nominated: Scott Adkins (John Wick: Chapter 4), Milo Machado Graner (Anatomy of a Fall), Bradley Cooper (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers), Jason Momoa (Fast X), Jamie Bell (All of Us Strangers)

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

1. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)

2. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)

3. American Ferrera (Barbie)

4. Jodie Foster (Nyad)

5. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Unfortunately, it’s not that common for this category to have multiple women of color nominated, so it was great seeing two Black women nominated (Danielle Brooks and Da’Vine Joy Randolph), especially since they’re both first time nominees and also more recognized for their comedic roles. This is yet another category that’s easy to predict, as Randolph has been sweeping the awards this season.

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph

Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph

Should’ve Been Nominated: Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.), Maribel Verdu (The Flash), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Audra McDonald (Origin), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers)

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees:

1. Anatomy of a Fall

2. The Holdovers

3. Maestro

4. May December

5. Past Lives

Anatomy of a Fall is an excellent film that works because of its strong dialogue. It’s the likeliest to win, but Past Lives is a critical darling (I don’t get it) and could win too. But don’t count out The Holdovers, a small film I liked and am happy is getting awards attention, but totally didn’t expect to be so beloved.

Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall

Could Win: Past Lives

Should Win: Anatomy of a Fall

Dark Horse: The Holdovers

Should’ve Been Nominated: Monster

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:

1. American Fiction

2. Barbie

3. Oppenheimer

4. Poor Things

5. The Zone of Interest

American Fiction will probably win this (sighs). But I’m going to go against my better judgment and predict an Oppenheimer win because I’m predicting an Oppenheimer sweep.

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Could Win: American Fiction

Should Win: Oppenheimer

Dark Horse: The Zone of Interest

Should’ve Been Nominated: Killers of the Flower Moon, Brother, Origin, All of Us Strangers

Best Animated Feature

Nominees:

1. The Boy and the Heron

2. Elemental

3. Nimona

4. Robot Dreams

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

I didn’t like The Boy and the Heron, but I appear to be in the minority (it has near universal acclaim on Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes), and it’s easy to see a win for (allegedly) Hayao Miyazaki’s “final” film. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse won this award five years ago, and its sequel appeared to be the frontrunner for the award upon release, but the film’s reputation has since been stained by allegations of labor abuse, which is why I think The Boy and the Heron will ultimately win.

Will Win: The Boy and the Heron

Could Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Should’ve Been Nominated: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Best International Feature Film

Nominees:

1. Io capitano (Italy)

2. Perfect Days (Japan)

3. Society of the Snow (Spain)

4. The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)

5. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

Here’s a rule of thumb: if an international feature film is also nominated for Best Picture, it’ll win this category. (See: Parasite, Drive My Car, and Roma) That’s why it’s a sure thing The Zone of Interest will win. This would have been a more interesting race had France submitted Anatomy of a Fall (which ended up being nominated for Best Picture) instead of The Taste of Things (each country is only allowed to submit one film, and France picking The Taste of Things over Anatomy of a Fall was controversial).

Will Win: The Zone of Interest

Should Win: Society of the Snow

Should’ve Been Nominated: Anatomy of a Fall (France), Monster (Japan)

Best Documentary Feature Film

Nominees:

1. Bobi Wine: The People's President

2. The Eternal Memory

3. Four Daughters

4. To Kill a Tiger

5. 20 Days in Mariupol

I haven’t seen any of these films and don’t follow the documentary awards scene as closely, which makes it harder to predict. My guess is Four Daughters wins, but the math is saying 20 Days in Mariupol.

Will Win: Four Daughters

Could Win: 20 Days in Mariupol

Best Documentary Short Film

Nominees:

1. The ABCs of Book Banning

2. The Barber of Little Rock

3. Island in Between

4. The Last Repair Shop

5. Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

Similarly, I never have strong opinions of this category and am just guessing The Last Repair Shop will win, though The ABCs of Book Banning could win due to its relevant subject matter.

Will Win: The Last Repair Shop

Could Win: The ABCs of Book Banning

Best Live Action Short Film

Nominees:

1. The After

2. Invincible

3. Knight of Fortune

4. Red, White and Blue

5. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

I’m just making a wild guess here. Again, I never really know with these smaller categories.

Will Win: Invincible

Best Animated Short Film

Nominees:

1. Letter to a Pig

2. Ninety-Five Senses

3. Our Uniform

4. Pachyderme

5. War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

Another guess!

Will Win: Letter to a Pig

Best Original Score

Nominees:

1. American Fiction

2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

3. Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Oppenheimer

5. Poor Things

I don’t think it’s even close. I think this will be another easy win for Oppenheimer.

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Could Win: Killers of the Flower Moon

Should Win: Oppenheimer

Dark Horse: Poor Things

Should Have Been Nominated: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Barbie, The Boy and the Heron, Asteroid City

Best Original Song

Nominees:

1. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

3. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony

4. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon

5. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Having two songs nominated from the same film could risk vote splitting, but I’m still going with my gut and predict a win for “What Was I Made For?” because Billie Eilish is an awards juggernaut.

Will Win: “What Was I Made For?”

Could Win: “I’m Just Ken”

Should Win: “What Was I Made For?”

Should’ve Been Nominated: “Steal the Show” from Elemental, “Camp Isn’t Home” from Theater Camp, “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes

Best Sound

Nominees:

1. The Creator

2. Maestro

3. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

4. Oppenheimer

5. The Zone of Interest

Sound has always been a controversial aspect of Christopher Nolan’s films but this time I’m predicting it won’t be as much of a problem due to Oppenheimer’s immersive soundscape, which is elevated with the help Ludwig Göransson’s impressive score and Hoyte van Hoytema’s beautiful images. But don’t count out The Zone of Interest, as (horrific) sound plays a crucial role in the film.

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Could Win: The Zone of Interest

Dark Horse: Maestro

Should Win: Oppenheimer

Should’ve Been Nominated: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, John Wick: Chapter 4

Best Production Design

Nominees:

1. Barbie

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Napoleon

4. Oppenheimer

5. Poor Things

Poor Things? More like “poor Barbie.” With Oppenheimer’s predicted dominance in the major categories, the crafts categories are were Barbie would have shined. But, with the exception of Best Original Song, I’m predicting a complete shut out of Barbie from the crafts categories due to Poor Things (which, ironically, feels like an Adult Barbie film).

Will Win: Poor Things

Could Win: Barbie

Dark Horse: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Poor Things

Should’ve Been Nominated: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Cinematography

Nominees:

1. El Conde

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Meastro

4. Oppenheimer

5. Poor Things

I’m predicting (and hoping) Hoyte van Hoytema will win his first Oscar for Oppenheimer. (He should have already won for Interstellar!)

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Could Win: Poor Things

Dark Horse: Maestro

Should Win: Oppenheimer

Should’ve Been Nominated: John Wick: Chapter 4, Saltburn

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees:

1. Golda

2. Maestro

3. Oppenheimer

4. Poor Things

5. Society of the Snow

Will Win: Poor Things

Could Win: Maestro

Dark Horse: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Poor Things

Should’ve Been Nominated: John Wick: Chapter 4

Best Costume Design

Nominees:

1. Barbie

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Napoleon

4. Oppenheimer

5. Poor Things

Another category Barbie would win if not for Poor Things.

Will Win: Poor Things

Could Win: Barbie

Dark Horse: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Poor Things

Should’ve Been Nominated: John Wick: Chapter 4, The Flash, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Best Film Editing

Nominees:

1. Anatomy of a Fall

2. The Holdovers

3. Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Oppenheimer

5. Poor Things

I predict Jennifer Lame will win her first Oscar for editing Oppenheimer, though she should have won for editing Christopher Nolan’s Tenet (which, I assume, would drive any editor insane).

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Could Win: Killers of the Flower Moon

Dark Horse: Anatomy of a Fall

Should Win: Oppenheimer

Should’ve Been Nominated: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Missing

Best Visual Effects

Nominees:

1. The Creator

2. Godzilla Minus One

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

4. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

5. Napoleon

It’s probably wiser for me to predict a win for The Creator, an American film, but I’m going to go with my gut and predict (and hope) Japan’s Godzilla Minus One pulls a win here.

Will Win: Godzilla Minus One

Could Win: The Creator

Dark Horse: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Should Win: Godzilla Minus One

Should’ve Been Nominated: Oppenheimer